http://hdl.handle.net/10453/35362 2026-10-15T03:03:02Z http://hdl.handle.net/10453/196704 Title: The good, the bad and the ugly: Scenarios of Sino-US competition and their implications for Australian defense policy Authors: Clarke, M Abstract: This paper explores three scenarios for the future evolution of Sino-US ‘strategic competition’ and examines how these trajectories may affect the defense strategy adopted by Australia. It identifies three scenarios for Sino-US relations: the normalization of ‘strategic competition’; the retrenchment of the United States under the second Trump presidency coupled with Chinese resilience under Xi Jinping; and the simultaneous retrenchment of the United States and the stagnation and/or retrenchment of Chinese power. It argues that the first of these scenarios, while presenting significant risks, provides Australia with greater prospects of achieving its core security objectives than the latter two scenarios which confront Australia with the prospect of having its strategic dependency on the United States leveraged by a transactional White House or its economic prosperity undercut by a stagnating China. 2026-01-01T00:00:00Z http://hdl.handle.net/10453/196319 Title: ‘Mumbling with eloquence’: An appraisal of the Biden administration’s national security strategy documents Authors: Clarke, M Abstract: This paper provides an examination of the content of the Biden administration’s triad of national security documents (National Security Strategy, National Defense Strategy and Nuclear Posture Review) and the context in which they were made. The paper’s application of Maria Henke’s four-part criteria to assess “best practice” in grand strategy - defining core strategic goals, identifying and analyzing strategic challenges, designing a coherent logic of action, and translating strategic ideas into coordinated policies–to these documents finds that the Biden administration failed to adequately prioritize the relative challenges posed by China and Russia and failed to elucidate a coherent logic of action through which to respond to those challenges. 2026-01-01T00:00:00Z http://hdl.handle.net/10453/194965 Title: The heterogeneous effects of emissions trading systems on energy consumption Authors: Shum, WY; Tan, X; Nghiem, X-H; Cheong, TS; Ma, N Abstract: Various measures have been proposed to reduce energy consumption (and ultimately emission) among which emission trading scheme (ETS) has been on top of the agenda. However, the majority of the existing literature focuses on the general impact of ETS while ignoring its potential heterogeneous effects. This paper investigates the influence of ETS on energy consumption with respect to different groups of stakeholders in China s Hubei province. To overcome the shortcomings of traditional econometric methods, the distribution dynamics method (which can capture transition probabilities and future evolutions) is employed. Empirical results confirm the significant and inhibiting impact of ETS on energy consumption in Hubei province, China. The superior role of benchmark and historical allocation methods in mitigating energy consumption is also confirmed. As the ETS can lower energy consumption in different areas (urban and rural), different types of firms (State-owned and private) and different industries (high- and low-polluting ones), Hubei provincial leaders are recommended to utilize this kind of scheme to decouple economic growth and energy consumption, thus protecting the environment in this area. Furthermore, other provinces in China may take the Hubei ETS as a shining example and implement appropriate steps similar to those of the Hubei ETS to yield similar benefits. 2025-11-01T00:00:00Z http://hdl.handle.net/10453/194960 Title: Revealing nexus between crime and inequality: Application of artificial neural network with bootstrapping approach Authors: Zeng, T; Cheong, TS; Shum, WY; Wan, G; Wu, H; Ma, N Abstract: The social structure theory posits that crime is a consequence of inequality. However, an expanding body of research indicates that crime can also emerge from affluence and equality. This study used an artificial neural network approach (ANN) and a bootstrapping approach (RAB) to study the relationship between crime and inequality, incorporating various influencing factors into the model. Results reveal an asymmetric inverted U-shaped pattern, with crime at its minimum when the Gini coefficient is 0.35. This observation implies that crime is promoted at elevated levels of inequality or excessive equality. Furthermore, the study acknowledges the influence of diverse factors, including human capital, population density, inflation, unemployment, urbanization, and civil liberties, on the dynamics of the relationship between inequality and crime rates. These findings provide pragmatic policy implications for countries at different stages of economic development, aiming to achieve economic growth with social equity and crime reduction. 2025-12-01T00:00:00Z