An Alternative Approach for Developing Temporal Patterns

Engineers Australia
Publication Type:
Conference Proceeding
Proceedings of H2009 the 32nd Hydrology and Water Resources Symposium, 2009, pp. 146 - 157
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An important component of estimating the flood flow is the temporal pattern associated with the design rainfall burst. The purpose of this paper, as part of the current revision of ARR, is to develop a new methodology for developing rainfall temporal patterns which will be presented together with a discussion of the implication for design flood flow estimation. Historical storms at two locations, namely Sydney and Richmond (New South Wales, Australia), were divided arbitrarily by meteorological origin into frontal or convective storms. These categories of historical storms were subdivided further by the location of the centre of mass of the storm. The relevant statistical properties for these storms were extracted for each of these categories and used in the development of the design temporal patterns. The proposed approach is based on a non-dimensional conditional random walk to generate an indefinite number of synthetic storms that preserve the internal structure of real storms. This approach allowed better representation of the temporal variability than the AVM method however, some problems with internal burst frequency were observed. Finally, rather than developing a single rainfall temporal pattern, the proposed approach develops a suite of synthetic design temporal patterns which enables the designer to assess the sensitivity of the peak flow estimate to the temporal pattern of rainfall.
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