Subjective And Interactive Duration Estimation

DSpace/Manakin Repository

Search OPUS

Advanced Search


My Account

Show simple item record Abourizk, S Sawhney, A 2011-02-07T06:25:14Z 1993-01
dc.identifier.citation Canadian Journal Of Civil Engineering, 1993, 20 (3), pp. 457 - 470
dc.identifier.issn 0315-1468
dc.identifier.other C1UNSUBMIT en_US
dc.description.abstract Scheduling of construction projects with an uncertainty content requires that the scheduler's subjective knowledge of various factors that might influence the duration of the activities comprising the project is incorporated. Depending on the participating factors and their significance, a different duration outcome is often observed for each activity. To include this uncertainty in the schedule, a statistical distribution is frequently used. This paper presents a system based on the premise that part of the information available, when duration distribution is being estimated, exists in a subjective form. We present an automated system that requires the modeler to specify the activity's minimum and maximum times and a set of linguistic descriptors of the external factors that are suspect of influencing the duration. The lower and upper end point estimates are often available from familiarity with the technology used, physical and logical constraints, or a combination of these situations. The subjective information collected by the modeler is modeled as fuzzy parameters and is quantified using fuzzy set theory. The result of the fuzzy set analysis is a sample of activity durations from the underlying distribution, which is then used to characterize the first two moments of that distribution. Since earlier research has shown that the beta distribution provides an adequate representation for construction durations, the end points specified by the user and the two moments resulting from the fuzzy set analysis are used to fit a beta distribution. The system then allows the user to visually assess the quality of the fit and modify the shape of the beta density using the visual interactive beta estimation system. The paper also presents a practical construction scheduling application to demonstrate the use of the developed system.
dc.format Yes
dc.publisher Natl Research Council Canada
dc.title Subjective And Interactive Duration Estimation
dc.type Journal Article
dc.parent Canadian Journal Of Civil Engineering
dc.journal.volume 3
dc.journal.volume 20
dc.journal.number 3 en_US
dc.publocation Ottawa en_US
dc.identifier.startpage 457 en_US
dc.identifier.endpage 470 en_US DAB.School of Built Environment en_US
dc.conference Verified OK en_US
dc.for 120201 Building Construction Management and Project Planning
dc.personcode 109510
dc.percentage 100 en_US Building Construction Management and Project Planning en_US
dc.classification.type FOR-08 en_US
dc.edition en_US
dc.custom en_US en_US
dc.location.activity ISI:A1993LP59900013 en_US
dc.description.keywords Construction en_US
pubs.embargo.period Not known
pubs.organisational-group /University of Technology Sydney
pubs.organisational-group /University of Technology Sydney/Faculty of Design, Architecture and Building
pubs.organisational-group /University of Technology Sydney/Faculty of Design, Architecture and Building/School of Built Environment
utslib.copyright.status Closed Access 2015-04-15 12:17:09.805752+10
utslib.collection.history School of Built Environment (ID: 332)
utslib.collection.history Closed (ID: 3)

Files in this item

This item appears in the following Collection(s)

Show simple item record