Are Economic Forecasts Rational?

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dc.contributor.author Keane, M
dc.contributor.author Runkle, D
dc.date.accessioned 2011-02-07T06:26:01Z
dc.date.issued 1989-01
dc.identifier.citation Federal Reserve Bank of Minneapolis Quarterly Review, 1989, 13 (2), pp. 26 - 33
dc.identifier.issn 0271-5287
dc.identifier.other C1UNSUBMIT en_US
dc.identifier.uri http://hdl.handle.net/10453/13919
dc.description.abstract his paper discusses at an undergraduate level how forecast rationality can be tested. It explains that forecasters should correctly use any relevant information they knew in making their predictions. It shows that forecast rationality can be tested by determining whether the forecasters' prediction errors are predictable. After addressing what data and methods can be used for testing rationality, the paper presents tests of the price-forecast rationality of individual professional forecasters. Unlike results of previous studies, the test results show that those forecasters' price predictions appear to be rational.
dc.format Yes
dc.publisher Federal Reserve Bank of Minneapolis
dc.title Are Economic Forecasts Rational?
dc.type Journal Article
dc.parent Federal Reserve Bank of Minneapolis Quarterly Review
dc.journal.volume 2
dc.journal.volume 13
dc.journal.number 2 en_US
dc.publocation USA en_US
dc.identifier.startpage 26 en_US
dc.identifier.endpage 33 en_US
dc.cauo.name BUS.School of Finance and Economics en_US
dc.conference Verified OK en_US
dc.for 140212 Macroeconomics (Incl. Monetary and Fiscal Theory)
dc.personcode 998871
dc.percentage 100 en_US
dc.classification.name Macroeconomics (incl. Monetary and Fiscal Theory) en_US
dc.classification.type FOR-08 en_US
dc.edition en_US
dc.custom en_US
dc.date.activity en_US
dc.location.activity en_US
dc.description.keywords NA en_US
dc.description.keywords NA
dc.description.keywords NA
pubs.embargo.period Not known
pubs.organisational-group /University of Technology Sydney
pubs.organisational-group /University of Technology Sydney/Faculty of Business
pubs.organisational-group /University of Technology Sydney/Faculty of Business/Economics


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