Peak Oil: Testing Hubbert's Curve via theoretical modelling

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dc.contributor.author Mohr, SH
dc.contributor.author Evans, G
dc.date.accessioned 2012-02-02T06:34:19Z
dc.date.issued 2008-01
dc.identifier.citation Natural Resources Research, 2008, 17 (1), pp. 1 - 11
dc.identifier.issn 1573-8981
dc.identifier.other C1UNSUBMIT en_US
dc.identifier.uri http://hdl.handle.net/10453/14777
dc.description.abstract A theoretical model of conventional oil production has been developed. The model does not assume Hubberts bell curve, an asymmetric bell curve, or a reserve-to-production ratio method is correct, and does not use oil production data as an input. The theoretical model is in close agreement with actual production data until the 1979 oil crisis, with an R 2 value of greater than 0.98. Whilst the theoretical model indicates that an ideal production curve is slightly asymmetric, which differs from Hubberts curve, the ideal model compares well with the Hubbert model, with R 2 values in excess of 0.95. Amending the theoretical model to take into account the 1979 oil crisis, and assuming the ultimately recoverable resources are in the range of 23 trillion barrels, the amended model predicts conventional oil production to peak between 2010 and 2025. The amended model, for the case when the ultimately recoverable resources is 2.2 trillion barrels, indicates that oil production peaks in 2013.
dc.publisher Springer
dc.relation.hasversion Accepted manuscript version en_US
dc.relation.isbasedon 10.1007/s11053-008-9059-8
dc.rights The original publication is available at www.springerlink.com en_US
dc.title Peak Oil: Testing Hubbert's Curve via theoretical modelling
dc.type Journal Article
dc.parent Natural Resources Research
dc.journal.volume 1
dc.journal.volume 17
dc.journal.number 1 en_US
dc.publocation Netherlands en_US
dc.identifier.startpage 1 en_US
dc.identifier.endpage 11 en_US
dc.cauo.name DVCRch.Institute for Sustainable Futures en_US
dc.conference Verified OK en_US
dc.for 0914 Resources Engineering and Extractive Metallurgy
dc.for 0502 Environmental Science and Management
dc.personcode 112568
dc.percentage 50 en_US
dc.classification.name Environmental Science and Management en_US
dc.classification.type FOR-08 en_US
dc.edition en_US
dc.custom en_US
dc.date.activity en_US
dc.location.activity en_US
dc.description.keywords Peak oil - modeling - Hubbert?s curve en_US
dc.description.keywords NA
dc.description.keywords Peak oil - modeling - Hubberts curve
pubs.embargo.period Not known
pubs.organisational-group /University of Technology Sydney
pubs.organisational-group /University of Technology Sydney/DVC (Research)
pubs.organisational-group /University of Technology Sydney/DVC (Research)/Institute For Sustainable Futures
pubs.organisational-group /University of Technology Sydney/Strength - Sustainable Futures
utslib.copyright.status Open Access
utslib.copyright.date 2015-04-15 12:23:47.074767+10
utslib.collection.history Institute For Sustainable Futures (ID: 362)
utslib.collection.history General (ID: 2)


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