High estimates of supply constrained emissions scenarios for long-term climate risk assessment

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dc.contributor.author Ward, JD
dc.contributor.author Mohr, SH
dc.contributor.author Myers, BR
dc.contributor.author Pell, WP
dc.date.accessioned 2014-04-03T01:22:43Z
dc.date.issued 2012-01
dc.identifier.citation Energy Policy, 2012, 51 (1), pp. 598 - 604
dc.identifier.issn 0301-4215
dc.identifier.other C1 en_US
dc.identifier.uri http://hdl.handle.net/10453/22798
dc.description.abstract The simulated effects of anthropogenic global warming have become important in many fields and most models agree that significant impacts are becoming unavoidable in the face of slow action. Improvements to model accuracy rely primarily on the refinement of parameter sensitivities and on plausible future carbon emissions trajectories. Carbon emissions are the leading cause of global warming, yet current considerations of future emissions do not consider structural limits to fossil fuel supply, invoking a wide range of uncertainty. Moreover, outdated assumptions regarding the future abundance of fossil energy could contribute to misleading projections of both economic growth and climate change vulnerability. Here we present an easily replicable mathematical model that considers fundamental supply-side constraints and demonstrate its use in a stochastic analysis to produce a theoretical upper limit to future emissions. The results show a significant reduction in prior uncertainty around projected long term emissions, and even assuming high estimates of all fossil fuel resources and high growth of unconventional production, cumulative emissions tend to align to the current medium emissions scenarios in the second half of this century. This significant finding provides much-needed guidance on developing relevant emissions scenarios for long term climate change impact studies
dc.publisher Elsevier
dc.title High estimates of supply constrained emissions scenarios for long-term climate risk assessment
dc.type Journal Article
dc.parent Energy Policy
dc.journal.volume 1
dc.journal.volume 51
dc.journal.number 1 en_US
dc.publocation The Netherlands en_US
dc.identifier.startpage 598 en_US
dc.identifier.endpage 604 en_US
dc.cauo.name DVCRch.Institute for Sustainable Futures en_US
dc.conference Verified OK en_US
dc.for 0502 Environmental Science and Management
dc.personcode 112568
dc.percentage 100 en_US
dc.classification.name Environmental Science and Management en_US
dc.classification.type FOR-08 en_US
dc.edition en_US
dc.custom en_US
dc.date.activity en_US
dc.location.activity en_US
dc.description.keywords Fossil fuel depletion; Greenhouse gas emissions; Long term climate projections en_US
dc.description.keywords Fossil fuel depletion
dc.description.keywords Greenhouse gas emissions
dc.description.keywords Long term climate projections
pubs.embargo.period Not known
pubs.organisational-group /University of Technology Sydney
pubs.organisational-group /University of Technology Sydney/DVC (Research)
pubs.organisational-group /University of Technology Sydney/DVC (Research)/Institute For Sustainable Futures
pubs.organisational-group /University of Technology Sydney/Strength - Sustainable Futures
utslib.copyright.status Closed Access
utslib.copyright.date 2015-04-15 12:17:09.805752+10
utslib.collection.history Closed (ID: 3)

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