Predicting storm-triggered landslides

Publication Type:
Journal Article
Bulletin of the American Meteorological Society, 2011, 92 (2), pp. 129 - 139
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Scalable and Extensible Geofluid Model of the Environment (SEGMENT) is thoroughly tested mechanistic modeling system for monitoring and predicting storm-triggered landslides and their ecosystem implications. In SEGMENT, landslides are simulated using a full three-dimensional Navier-Stokes solver and the creeping rates are also simulated at all depths of the borehole measurements. To project the landslide events for the Southern California region, SEGMENT is driven by the Community Climate System Model, version 3, a coupled climate model of relatively high horizontal resolution. SEGMENT offers a unique opportunity for regional-scale assessment and shows how fire removal of vegetation will increase landslide risk is an important but poorly studied natural hazards problem. The good performance of the model is attributable to the use of a new, fully three-dimensional modeling framework based on a newly proposed granular rheology and to the use of a land surface scheme that explicitly parameterizes the hydrological characteristics of macropores.
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