Determinants of house prices in New Zealand

Publisher:
PRRES
Publication Type:
Journal Article
Citation:
Pacific Rim Property Research Journal, 2009, 15 (1), pp. 90 - 121
Issue Date:
2009-01
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This paper develops house price forecasting models using MRA in order to analyse the main determinants of house prices in the New Zealand market. Quarterly time series data fro the period from March 1980 to December 2007 were collected from the Department of Statistics and the Reserve Bank New Zealand for the model development. The estimated model suggests that house prices will fall after 2007 and will continue to fall in 2008 and 2009, and that migration plays an important role in determining house price fluctuation. Investment expectations, unemployment, mortgage rate and building permits are also the main determinants of price variations.
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