Development of a prognostic model for patients with shoulder complaints in physical therapist practice

Karel, YHJM; Verhagen, AP; Thoomes-de Graaf, M; Duijn, E; van den Borne, MPJ; Beumer, A; Ottenheijm, RPG; Dinant, GJJ; Koes, BW; Scholten-Peeters, GGM

Development of a prognostic model for patients with shoulder complaints in physical therapist practice

Karel, YHJM Verhagen, AP

Thoomes-de Graaf, M Duijn, E van den Borne, MPJ Beumer, A Ottenheijm, RPG Dinant, GJJ Koes, BW Scholten-Peeters, GGM

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Publication Type:: Journal Article
Citation:: Physical Therapy, 2017, 97 (1), pp. 71 - 80
Issue Date:: 2017-01-01

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Field	Value	Language
dc.contributor.author	Karel, YHJM	en_US
dc.contributor.author	Verhagen, AP https://orcid.org/0000-0002-6195-0128	en_US
dc.contributor.author	Thoomes-de Graaf, M	en_US
dc.contributor.author	Duijn, E	en_US
dc.contributor.author	van den Borne, MPJ	en_US
dc.contributor.author	Beumer, A	en_US
dc.contributor.author	Ottenheijm, RPG	en_US
dc.contributor.author	Dinant, GJJ	en_US
dc.contributor.author	Koes, BW	en_US
dc.contributor.author	Scholten-Peeters, GGM	en_US
dc.date.available	2016-08-01	en_US
dc.date.issued	2017-01-01	en_US
dc.identifier.citation	Physical Therapy, 2017, 97 (1), pp. 71 - 80	en_US
dc.identifier.issn	0031-9023	en_US
dc.identifier.uri	http://hdl.handle.net/10453/123763
dc.description.abstract	© 2017 American Physical Therapy Association. Background. Health care providers need prognostic factors to distinguish between patients who are likely to recover and those who are not likely to recover. Objective. The aim of this study was to: (1) describe the clinical course of recovery and (2) identify prognostic factors of recovery in patients with shoulder pain at the 26-week follow-up. Design. A prospective cohort study was carried out in the Netherlands and included 389 patients who consulted a physical therapist for a new episode of shoulder pain. Method. Participants were followed for 26 weeks. Potential predictors of recovery were selected from the literature and, with the addition of 2 new variables (ie, use of diagnostic ultrasound and working alliance), evaluated in the multivariable regression analysis. Multiple imputation was used to handle missing data, and bootstrap methods were used for internal validation. Results. The recovery rate was 60% for the total population and 65% for the working population after 26 weeks. Short duration of complaints, lower disability scores, having a paid job, better working alliance, and no feelings of anxiety or depression were associated with recovery. In the working population, only duration of complaints and disability remained in the final model. The area under the receiver operating characteristic curve (AUC) for the final model was 0.67 for the total population and 0.63 for the working population. After internal validation, the AUC was corrected to 0.66 and 0.63, respectively. Limitations. External validation of the prognostic model should be done prior to its use in clinical practice. Conclusion. The results of this study indicate that several factors can predict recovery.	en_US
dc.relation.ispartof	Physical Therapy	en_US
dc.relation.isbasedon	10.2522/ptj.20150649	en_US
dc.subject.classification	Rehabilitation	en_US
dc.subject.mesh	Humans	en_US
dc.subject.mesh	Shoulder Pain	en_US
dc.subject.mesh	Occupational Diseases	en_US
dc.subject.mesh	Pain Measurement	en_US
dc.subject.mesh	Disability Evaluation	en_US
dc.subject.mesh	Prognosis	en_US
dc.subject.mesh	Treatment Outcome	en_US
dc.subject.mesh	Regression Analysis	en_US
dc.subject.mesh	Follow-Up Studies	en_US
dc.subject.mesh	Prospective Studies	en_US
dc.subject.mesh	Professional-Patient Relations	en_US
dc.subject.mesh	Trust	en_US
dc.subject.mesh	Models, Theoretical	en_US
dc.subject.mesh	Time Factors	en_US
dc.subject.mesh	Quality of Life	en_US
dc.subject.mesh	Middle Aged	en_US
dc.subject.mesh	Netherlands	en_US
dc.subject.mesh	Female	en_US
dc.subject.mesh	Male	en_US
dc.subject.mesh	Physical Therapy Modalities	en_US
dc.subject.mesh	Symptom Assessment	en_US
dc.subject.mesh	Patient Outcome Assessment	en_US
dc.subject.mesh	Surveys and Questionnaires	en_US
dc.title	Development of a prognostic model for patients with shoulder complaints in physical therapist practice	en_US
dc.type	Journal Article
utslib.citation.volume	1	en_US
utslib.citation.volume	97	en_US
utslib.for	1103 Clinical Sciences	en_US
utslib.for	1106 Human Movement and Sports Sciences	en_US
pubs.embargo.period	Not known	en_US
pubs.organisational-group	/University of Technology Sydney
pubs.organisational-group	/University of Technology Sydney/Graduate School of Health
utslib.copyright.status	open_access
pubs.issue	1	en_US
pubs.publication-status	Published	en_US
pubs.volume	97	en_US

Abstract:

© 2017 American Physical Therapy Association. Background. Health care providers need prognostic factors to distinguish between patients who are likely to recover and those who are not likely to recover. Objective. The aim of this study was to: (1) describe the clinical course of recovery and (2) identify prognostic factors of recovery in patients with shoulder pain at the 26-week follow-up. Design. A prospective cohort study was carried out in the Netherlands and included 389 patients who consulted a physical therapist for a new episode of shoulder pain. Method. Participants were followed for 26 weeks. Potential predictors of recovery were selected from the literature and, with the addition of 2 new variables (ie, use of diagnostic ultrasound and working alliance), evaluated in the multivariable regression analysis. Multiple imputation was used to handle missing data, and bootstrap methods were used for internal validation. Results. The recovery rate was 60% for the total population and 65% for the working population after 26 weeks. Short duration of complaints, lower disability scores, having a paid job, better working alliance, and no feelings of anxiety or depression were associated with recovery. In the working population, only duration of complaints and disability remained in the final model. The area under the receiver operating characteristic curve (AUC) for the final model was 0.67 for the total population and 0.63 for the working population. After internal validation, the AUC was corrected to 0.66 and 0.63, respectively. Limitations. External validation of the prognostic model should be done prior to its use in clinical practice. Conclusion. The results of this study indicate that several factors can predict recovery.

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http://hdl.handle.net/10453/123763