Models provide insights on North American gas future

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Journal Article
Oil and Gas Journal, 2007, 105 (25)
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Estimates of ultimate recovery resources (URR) for conventional gas in North America were drawn from models with various assumptions using a history match of past production and bell-curve approach. Model 1 used Laherrer's URR estimate of 42.5 tcm for US plus Canada and Model 2 used Rempel's URR estimate of 63 tcm for US plus Canada. Both models used only historic US and Canadian conventional natural gas production from 1918 to 1993. The assessment modified both models to account for stranded gas. Model 1 predicts gas production will decrease steadily. Model 2 shows a continued decrease until 2015, followed by a significant increase in production to a peak in 2049. URR estimates of unconventional gas in the US are tight gas: 200-627 tcf; coalbed methane: 50-180 tcf; shale gas: 50-150 tcf. The highest estimates of 600 tcf tight gas, 180 tcf coalbed methane and 150 tcf shale gas for the model. Estimates of tight-gas resources in Canada vary from 300 tcf to 700 tcf. The US has about 6000 tcf of tight gas in place. Finally, because of unconventional and stranded gas, production remains almost steady until 2025 before declining.
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