Understanding future urban growth, urban resilience and sustainable development of small cities using prediction-adaptation-resilience (PAR) approach

Mallick, SK; Das, P; Maity, B; Rudra, S; Pramanik, M; Pradhan, B; Sahana, M

Understanding future urban growth, urban resilience and sustainable development of small cities using prediction-adaptation-resilience (PAR) approach

Mallick, SK Das, P Maity, B Rudra, S Pramanik, M Pradhan, B

Sahana, M

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Publisher:: Elsevier
Publication Type:: Journal Article
Citation:: Sustainable Cities and Society, 2021, 74, pp. 1-13
Issue Date:: 2021-11-01

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Field	Value	Language
dc.contributor.author	Mallick, SK
dc.contributor.author	Das, P
dc.contributor.author	Maity, B
dc.contributor.author	Rudra, S
dc.contributor.author	Pramanik, M
dc.contributor.author	Pradhan, B https://orcid.org/0000-0001-9863-2054
dc.contributor.author	Sahana, M
dc.date.accessioned	2022-02-27T23:28:07Z
dc.date.available	2022-02-27T23:28:07Z
dc.date.issued	2021-11-01
dc.identifier.citation	Sustainable Cities and Society, 2021, 74, pp. 1-13
dc.identifier.issn	2210-6707
dc.identifier.issn	2210-6715
dc.identifier.uri	http://hdl.handle.net/10453/154892
dc.description.abstract	Rapid urban proliferation is an indispensable and reciprocal issue in contemporary urban planning and development. This study envisages the prediction-adaptation-resilience (PAR) approach to analyze the future urban landscape resilience and sustainable development goals (SDGs). We have selected a small, unplanned growing up city, namely, Krishnanagar urban agglomeration (KUA), in India, to apply the PAR approach. Therefore, land use land cover map has been prepared for 2000, 2010, and 2020. The result shows the built-up area has been increased most in past 20 years, from 6.36 km2 to 13.23 km2. Then, the cellular automata-Markov chain model is applied to predict the future potential urban development surface for 2030 and 2040. The receiver operating characteristic (ROC) curve shows 83.6% success rate between the predicted and actual map of CA-Markov. The prediction map of 2030 and 2040 shows that the built-up area continuously expands (13.23 km2 to 16.52 km2) towards KUA's surrounding regions. Consequently, other decreasing land classes will be a threat to SDGs and urban resilience. So, people of KUA are adopting the changing hostile nature of urbanisation and urban vulnerability. Hence, this study will help the local administration to make a proper urban planning and adaptation strategies by maintaining good urban governance to achieve 8 SDGs of UN's 2030 Agenda in future.
dc.language	en
dc.publisher	Elsevier
dc.relation.ispartof	Sustainable Cities and Society
dc.relation.isbasedon	10.1016/j.scs.2021.103196
dc.rights	info:eu-repo/semantics/closedAccess
dc.subject	0502 Environmental Science and Management, 1205 Urban and Regional Planning
dc.title	Understanding future urban growth, urban resilience and sustainable development of small cities using prediction-adaptation-resilience (PAR) approach
dc.type	Journal Article
utslib.citation.volume	74
utslib.for	0502 Environmental Science and Management
utslib.for	1205 Urban and Regional Planning
pubs.organisational-group	/University of Technology Sydney
pubs.organisational-group	/University of Technology Sydney/Faculty of Engineering and Information Technology
pubs.organisational-group	/University of Technology Sydney/Faculty of Engineering and Information Technology/School of Civil and Environmental Engineering
pubs.organisational-group	/University of Technology Sydney/Strength - CAMGIS - Centre for Advanced Modelling and Geospatial lnformation Systems
utslib.copyright.status	closed_access	*
pubs.consider-herdc	false
dc.date.updated	2022-02-27T23:28:01Z
pubs.publication-status	Published
pubs.volume	74

Abstract:

Rapid urban proliferation is an indispensable and reciprocal issue in contemporary urban planning and development. This study envisages the prediction-adaptation-resilience (PAR) approach to analyze the future urban landscape resilience and sustainable development goals (SDGs). We have selected a small, unplanned growing up city, namely, Krishnanagar urban agglomeration (KUA), in India, to apply the PAR approach. Therefore, land use land cover map has been prepared for 2000, 2010, and 2020. The result shows the built-up area has been increased most in past 20 years, from 6.36 km2 to 13.23 km2. Then, the cellular automata-Markov chain model is applied to predict the future potential urban development surface for 2030 and 2040. The receiver operating characteristic (ROC) curve shows 83.6% success rate between the predicted and actual map of CA-Markov. The prediction map of 2030 and 2040 shows that the built-up area continuously expands (13.23 km2 to 16.52 km2) towards KUA's surrounding regions. Consequently, other decreasing land classes will be a threat to SDGs and urban resilience. So, people of KUA are adopting the changing hostile nature of urbanisation and urban vulnerability. Hence, this study will help the local administration to make a proper urban planning and adaptation strategies by maintaining good urban governance to achieve 8 SDGs of UN's 2030 Agenda in future.

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http://hdl.handle.net/10453/154892