Analyses and implications of accidents in singapore strait

Qu, X; Meng, Q; Li, S

Analyses and implications of accidents in singapore strait

Qu, X

Meng, Q Li, S

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Publication Type:: Journal Article
Citation:: Transportation Research Record, 2012, (2273), pp. 106 - 111
Issue Date:: 2012-01-12

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Field	Value	Language
dc.contributor.author	Qu, X https://orcid.org/0000-0003-0973-3756	en_US
dc.contributor.author	Meng, Q	en_US
dc.contributor.author	Li, S	en_US
dc.date.issued	2012-01-12	en_US
dc.identifier.citation	Transportation Research Record, 2012, (2273), pp. 106 - 111	en_US
dc.identifier.issn	0361-1981	en_US
dc.identifier.uri	http://hdl.handle.net/10453/115164
dc.description.abstract	This paper aims to estimate the lower and upper bounds of the number of accidents that have occurred in the Singapore Strait over the past 10 years on the basis of two maritime accident databases: Global Integrated Shipping Information System and Lloyd's List Intelligence. After an evaluation of the incompleteness of these two databases, a novel and tangible method is proposed to estimate the lower and upper bounds of the number of accidents by using Bayesian analysis under mild assumptions. This method produces the following three important results. First, the annual maritime accident occurrence frequency in the Singapore Strait ranges from 17.6 to 33.0; that is, less than 0.005% of vessels could be involved in an accident when passing through the Strait. Second, the reporting performances of both maritime accident databases to the Singapore Strait are less than 62.5%. In other words, more than 37.5% of maritime accidents are not included in the database. Third, ship collisions account for more than 50% of all types of accidents; this result indicates that a high priority should be assigned to reducing the occurrence of ship collisions by enhancing the navigational systems in the Singapore Strait.	en_US
dc.relation.ispartof	Transportation Research Record	en_US
dc.relation.isbasedon	10.3141/2273-13	en_US
dc.subject.classification	Logistics & Transportation	en_US
dc.title	Analyses and implications of accidents in singapore strait	en_US
dc.type	Journal Article
utslib.citation.volume	2273	en_US
utslib.for	0905 Civil Engineering	en_US
utslib.for	1205 Urban and Regional Planning	en_US
utslib.for	1507 Transportation and Freight Services	en_US
pubs.embargo.period	Not known	en_US
pubs.organisational-group	/University of Technology Sydney
pubs.organisational-group	/University of Technology Sydney/Faculty of Engineering and Information Technology
pubs.organisational-group	/University of Technology Sydney/Faculty of Engineering and Information Technology/School of Civil and Environmental Engineering
pubs.organisational-group	/University of Technology Sydney/Strength - CBI - Centre for Built Infrastructure
pubs.organisational-group	/University of Technology Sydney/Strength - CRIN - Realtime Information Networks
utslib.copyright.status	open_access
pubs.issue	2273	en_US
pubs.publication-status	Published	en_US

Abstract:

This paper aims to estimate the lower and upper bounds of the number of accidents that have occurred in the Singapore Strait over the past 10 years on the basis of two maritime accident databases: Global Integrated Shipping Information System and Lloyd's List Intelligence. After an evaluation of the incompleteness of these two databases, a novel and tangible method is proposed to estimate the lower and upper bounds of the number of accidents by using Bayesian analysis under mild assumptions. This method produces the following three important results. First, the annual maritime accident occurrence frequency in the Singapore Strait ranges from 17.6 to 33.0; that is, less than 0.005% of vessels could be involved in an accident when passing through the Strait. Second, the reporting performances of both maritime accident databases to the Singapore Strait are less than 62.5%. In other words, more than 37.5% of maritime accidents are not included in the database. Third, ship collisions account for more than 50% of all types of accidents; this result indicates that a high priority should be assigned to reducing the occurrence of ship collisions by enhancing the navigational systems in the Singapore Strait.

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http://hdl.handle.net/10453/115164