Provincial business cycles and fiscal policy in China

Carmignani, F; Laurenceson, JS

Provincial business cycles and fiscal policy in China

Carmignani, F Laurenceson, JS

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Publication Type:: Journal Article
Citation:: Economics of Transition, 2013, 21 (2), pp. 323 - 340
Issue Date:: 2013-04-01

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Field	Value	Language
dc.contributor.author	Carmignani, F	en_US
dc.contributor.author	Laurenceson, JS https://orcid.org/0000-0002-3991-0082	en_US
dc.date.issued	2013-04-01	en_US
dc.identifier.citation	Economics of Transition, 2013, 21 (2), pp. 323 - 340	en_US
dc.identifier.issn	0967-0750	en_US
dc.identifier.uri	http://hdl.handle.net/10453/116236
dc.description.abstract	We characterize the cyclical properties of fiscal policy in China along two related dimensions. First, we estimate the sign and size of the fiscal policy multiplier. Second, we assess whether fiscal policy is conducted pro- or counter-cyclically. To account for the challenges posed by China's vast geography, we use data at the provincial level. We find that (i) fiscal policy generally has 'Keynesian' effects, and (ii) fiscal policy is mostly conducted pro-cyclically. This means that fiscal policy is more an element of destabilization than a tool for stabilization. © 2013 The Authors Economics of Transition © 2013 The European Bank for Reconstruction and Development. Published by Blackwell Publishing Ltd.	en_US
dc.relation.ispartof	Economics of Transition	en_US
dc.relation.isbasedon	10.1111/ecot.12010	en_US
dc.rights	info:eu-repo/semantics/closedAccess
dc.subject.classification	Economics	en_US
dc.title	Provincial business cycles and fiscal policy in China	en_US
dc.type	Journal Article
utslib.citation.volume	2	en_US
utslib.citation.volume	21	en_US
utslib.for	1402 Applied Economics	en_US
pubs.embargo.period	Not known	en_US
pubs.organisational-group	/University of Technology Sydney
pubs.organisational-group	/University of Technology Sydney/DVC (International)
pubs.organisational-group	/University of Technology Sydney/DVC (International)/Australia-China Relations Institute
utslib.copyright.status	closed_access	*
pubs.issue	2	en_US
pubs.publication-status	Published	en_US
pubs.volume	21	en_US

Abstract:

We characterize the cyclical properties of fiscal policy in China along two related dimensions. First, we estimate the sign and size of the fiscal policy multiplier. Second, we assess whether fiscal policy is conducted pro- or counter-cyclically. To account for the challenges posed by China's vast geography, we use data at the provincial level. We find that (i) fiscal policy generally has 'Keynesian' effects, and (ii) fiscal policy is mostly conducted pro-cyclically. This means that fiscal policy is more an element of destabilization than a tool for stabilization. © 2013 The Authors Economics of Transition © 2013 The European Bank for Reconstruction and Development. Published by Blackwell Publishing Ltd.

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http://hdl.handle.net/10453/116236