Cost-sensitive churn prediction in fund management services

Publication Type:
Conference Proceeding
Lecture Notes in Computer Science (including subseries Lecture Notes in Artificial Intelligence and Lecture Notes in Bioinformatics), 2018, 10828 LNCS pp. 776 - 788
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© Springer International Publishing AG, part of Springer Nature 2018. Churn prediction is vital to companies as to identify potential churners and prevent losses in advance. Although it has been addressed as a classification task and a variety of models have been employed in practice, fund management services have presented several special challenges. One is that financial data is extremely imbalanced since only a tiny proportion of customers leave every year. Another is a unique cost-sensitive learning problem, i.e., costs of wrong predictions for churners should be related to their account balances, while costs of wrong predictions for non-churners should be the same. To address these issues, this paper proposes a new churn prediction model based on ensemble learning. In our model, multiple classifiers are built using sampled datasets to tackle the imbalanced data issue while exploiting data fully. Moreover, a novel sampling strategy is proposed to deal with the unique cost-sensitive issue. This model has been deployed in one of the leading fund management institutions in Australia, and its effectiveness has been fully validated in real applications.
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