High renewable energy penetration scenarios and their implications for urban energy and transport systems

Teske, S; Pregger, T; Simon, S; Naegler, T

High renewable energy penetration scenarios and their implications for urban energy and transport systems

Teske, S

Pregger, T Simon, S Naegler, T

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Publication Type:: Journal Article
Citation:: Current Opinion in Environmental Sustainability, 2018, 30 pp. 89 - 102
Issue Date:: 2018-02-01

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Field	Value	Language
dc.contributor.author	Teske, S https://orcid.org/0000-0001-9582-2469	en_US
dc.contributor.author	Pregger, T	en_US
dc.contributor.author	Simon, S	en_US
dc.contributor.author	Naegler, T	en_US
dc.date.issued	2018-02-01	en_US
dc.identifier.citation	Current Opinion in Environmental Sustainability, 2018, 30 pp. 89 - 102	en_US
dc.identifier.issn	1877-3435	en_US
dc.identifier.uri	http://hdl.handle.net/10453/129281
dc.description.abstract	© 2018 Elsevier B.V. To meet the terms of the 2015 Paris Agreement, the global energy system must be entirely decarbonized by the end of this century. Two scenarios have been developed: a reference case (REF) and an advanced 100% renewable energy scenario (ADV). ADV reflects the trends in global energy systems and will decarbonize the entire energy system by 2050. Those results are compared with the IPCC AR5 450 ppm scenarios, in terms of the 2050 energy demand projections — primary and final energy — and the demands for the transport and building sectors because they are important in urban environments. The results are further discussed with regard to the impact on urban infrastructures and the role of megacities in the global energy consumption pattern. Under the assumption that urbanization rates will remain at the 2015 level until 2050, the annual energy demand for buildings in urban areas is expected to increase by 27 EJ under the reference scenario (REF), from 57 EJ to 84 EJ per year, whereas ADV would lead to an overall reduction to 46 EJ per year by 2050, while the population and GDP continue to grow. Overall, the global energy demand in the transport sector is expected to increase by over 60% by 2050 under REF, whereas the deep mitigation pathway (ADV) reduces the transport energy demand below that of the base year, to 70 EJ per year. This is a significant reduction, even compared with other 450 ppm scenarios, and can be achieved by a drastic shift to electric mobility in response to vehicle efficiency standards, a phasing-out of combustion engines in the transport sector by 2030, and a modal shift in favor of urban public transport. The global energy demand for the building sector in ADV shows a smaller deviation in comparison to other 450 ppm scenarios than that for the transport sector.	en_US
dc.relation.ispartof	Current Opinion in Environmental Sustainability	en_US
dc.relation.isbasedon	10.1016/j.cosust.2018.04.007	en_US
dc.title	High renewable energy penetration scenarios and their implications for urban energy and transport systems	en_US
dc.type	Journal Article
utslib.citation.volume	30	en_US
utslib.for	0502 Environmental Science and Management	en_US
utslib.for	MD Multidisciplinary	en_US
pubs.embargo.period	Not known	en_US
pubs.organisational-group	/University of Technology Sydney
pubs.organisational-group	/University of Technology Sydney/DVC (Research)
pubs.organisational-group	/University of Technology Sydney/DVC (Research)/Institute For Sustainable Futures
pubs.organisational-group	/University of Technology Sydney/Strength - ISF - Institute for Sustainable Futures
utslib.copyright.status	closed_access
pubs.publication-status	Published	en_US
pubs.volume	30	en_US

Abstract:

© 2018 Elsevier B.V. To meet the terms of the 2015 Paris Agreement, the global energy system must be entirely decarbonized by the end of this century. Two scenarios have been developed: a reference case (REF) and an advanced 100% renewable energy scenario (ADV). ADV reflects the trends in global energy systems and will decarbonize the entire energy system by 2050. Those results are compared with the IPCC AR5 450 ppm scenarios, in terms of the 2050 energy demand projections — primary and final energy — and the demands for the transport and building sectors because they are important in urban environments. The results are further discussed with regard to the impact on urban infrastructures and the role of megacities in the global energy consumption pattern. Under the assumption that urbanization rates will remain at the 2015 level until 2050, the annual energy demand for buildings in urban areas is expected to increase by 27 EJ under the reference scenario (REF), from 57 EJ to 84 EJ per year, whereas ADV would lead to an overall reduction to 46 EJ per year by 2050, while the population and GDP continue to grow. Overall, the global energy demand in the transport sector is expected to increase by over 60% by 2050 under REF, whereas the deep mitigation pathway (ADV) reduces the transport energy demand below that of the base year, to 70 EJ per year. This is a significant reduction, even compared with other 450 ppm scenarios, and can be achieved by a drastic shift to electric mobility in response to vehicle efficiency standards, a phasing-out of combustion engines in the transport sector by 2030, and a modal shift in favor of urban public transport. The global energy demand for the building sector in ADV shows a smaller deviation in comparison to other 450 ppm scenarios than that for the transport sector.

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http://hdl.handle.net/10453/129281