Characterizing the potential of being emerging generic technologies: A Bi-Layer Network Analytics-based Prediction Method
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- Conference Proceeding
- 17th International Conference on Scientometrics and Informetrics, ISSI 2019 - Proceedings, 2019, 2 pp. 1436 - 1447
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© 2019 17th International Conference on Scientometrics and Informetrics, ISSI 2019 - Proceedings. All rights reserved. Despite tremendous involvement of bibliometrics in profiling technological landscapes and identifying emerging topics, how to predict potential technological change is still unclear. This paper proposes a bi-layer network analytics-based prediction method to characterize the potential of being emerging generic technologies. Initially, based on the innovation literature, three technological characteristics are defined, and quantified by topological indicators in network analytics; a link prediction approach is applied for reconstructing the network with weighted missing links, and such reconstruction will also result in the change of related technological characteristics; the comparison between the two ranking lists of terms can help identify potential emerging generic technologies. A case study on predicting emerging generic technologies in information science demonstrates the feasibility and reliability of the proposed method.
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