Integrating Circular Economy Strategies with Low-Carbon Scenarios: Lithium Use in Electric Vehicles

Watari, T; Nansai, K; Nakajima, K; McLellan, BC; Dominish, E; Giurco, D

Integrating Circular Economy Strategies with Low-Carbon Scenarios: Lithium Use in Electric Vehicles

Watari, T Nansai, K Nakajima, K McLellan, BC Dominish, E Giurco, D

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Publication Type:: Journal Article
Citation:: Environmental Science and Technology, 2019, 53 (20), pp. 11657 - 11665
Issue Date:: 2019-10-15

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Field	Value	Language
dc.contributor.author	Watari, T	en_US
dc.contributor.author	Nansai, K	en_US
dc.contributor.author	Nakajima, K	en_US
dc.contributor.author	McLellan, BC	en_US
dc.contributor.author	Dominish, E	en_US
dc.contributor.author	Giurco, D https://orcid.org/0000-0002-1707-9531	en_US
dc.date.issued	2019-10-15	en_US
dc.identifier.citation	Environmental Science and Technology, 2019, 53 (20), pp. 11657 - 11665	en_US
dc.identifier.issn	0013-936X	en_US
dc.identifier.uri	http://hdl.handle.net/10453/138370
dc.description.abstract	Copyright © 2019 American Chemical Society. Electrification of the transport sector will support its decarbonization, yet significantly change material requirements. This calls for an integrated modeling approach internalizing metal demand-supply dynamics in low-carbon scenarios to support the Paris agreement on climate change and sustainable material circulation. Here we develop a step toward the integrated simulation of energy-materials scenarios by unifying a stock-flow dynamics model for low-carbon scenarios using linear programming. The modeling framework incorporates lithium supply from both mines and end-of-life (EoL) recycling for projected use in electric vehicles on a global basis. The results show that supply constraints, which could become apparent from around 2030 in the case of current recycling rates (<1%), would impede the deployment of battery electric vehicles (BEVs), leading to the generation of an additional 300 Mt-CO2 of emissions for vehicle operation in 2050. Another important finding is that increasing the recycling rate to 80% could substantially relieve restrictions on the introduction of BEVs without requiring primary supply from natural deposits far beyond historical rates of expansion. While EoL recycling is important from a long-term perspective, an EoL-oriented strategy has little effect on the short/medium-term (such as to 2030) lithium demand-supply balance because of exponential demand growth and long living batteries. Importantly, findings in this study emphasize the necessity of tackling climate change and resource circulation in an integrated manner.	en_US
dc.relation.ispartof	Environmental Science and Technology	en_US
dc.relation.isbasedon	10.1021/acs.est.9b02872	en_US
dc.subject.classification	Environmental Sciences	en_US
dc.subject.mesh	Carbon	en_US
dc.subject.mesh	Lithium	en_US
dc.subject.mesh	Electricity	en_US
dc.subject.mesh	Electric Power Supplies	en_US
dc.subject.mesh	Recycling	en_US
dc.title	Integrating Circular Economy Strategies with Low-Carbon Scenarios: Lithium Use in Electric Vehicles	en_US
dc.type	Journal Article
utslib.citation.volume	20	en_US
utslib.citation.volume	53	en_US
utslib.for	0502 Environmental Science and Management	en_US
pubs.embargo.period	Not known	en_US
pubs.organisational-group	/University of Technology Sydney
pubs.organisational-group	/University of Technology Sydney/DVC (Research)
pubs.organisational-group	/University of Technology Sydney/DVC (Research)/Institute For Sustainable Futures
pubs.organisational-group	/University of Technology Sydney/Strength - ISF - Institute for Sustainable Futures
utslib.copyright.status	closed_access
pubs.issue	20	en_US
pubs.publication-status	Published	en_US
pubs.volume	53	en_US

Abstract:

Copyright © 2019 American Chemical Society. Electrification of the transport sector will support its decarbonization, yet significantly change material requirements. This calls for an integrated modeling approach internalizing metal demand-supply dynamics in low-carbon scenarios to support the Paris agreement on climate change and sustainable material circulation. Here we develop a step toward the integrated simulation of energy-materials scenarios by unifying a stock-flow dynamics model for low-carbon scenarios using linear programming. The modeling framework incorporates lithium supply from both mines and end-of-life (EoL) recycling for projected use in electric vehicles on a global basis. The results show that supply constraints, which could become apparent from around 2030 in the case of current recycling rates (<1%), would impede the deployment of battery electric vehicles (BEVs), leading to the generation of an additional 300 Mt-CO2 of emissions for vehicle operation in 2050. Another important finding is that increasing the recycling rate to 80% could substantially relieve restrictions on the introduction of BEVs without requiring primary supply from natural deposits far beyond historical rates of expansion. While EoL recycling is important from a long-term perspective, an EoL-oriented strategy has little effect on the short/medium-term (such as to 2030) lithium demand-supply balance because of exponential demand growth and long living batteries. Importantly, findings in this study emphasize the necessity of tackling climate change and resource circulation in an integrated manner.

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http://hdl.handle.net/10453/138370