Long term prediction of unconventional oil production

Mohr, SH; Evans, GM

Long term prediction of unconventional oil production

Mohr, SH Evans, GM

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Publication Type:: Journal Article
Citation:: Energy Policy, 2010, 38 (1), pp. 265 - 276
Issue Date:: 2010-01-01

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Field	Value	Language
dc.contributor.author	Mohr, SH	en_US
dc.contributor.author	Evans, GM	en_US
dc.date.issued	2010-01-01	en_US
dc.identifier.citation	Energy Policy, 2010, 38 (1), pp. 265 - 276	en_US
dc.identifier.issn	0301-4215	en_US
dc.identifier.uri	http://hdl.handle.net/10453/14784
dc.description.abstract	Although considerable discussion surrounds unconventional oil's ability to mitigate the effects of peaking conventional oil production, very few models of unconventional oil production exist. The aim of this article was to project unconventional oil production to determine how significant its production may be. Two models were developed to predict the unconventional oil production, one model for in situ production and the other for mining the resources. Unconventional oil production is anticipated to reach between 18 and 32 Gb/y (49-88 Mb/d) in 2076-2084, before declining. If conventional oil production is at peak production then projected unconventional oil production cannot mitigate peaking of conventional oil alone. © 2009 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.	en_US
dc.relation.ispartof	Energy Policy	en_US
dc.relation.isbasedon	10.1016/j.enpol.2009.09.015	en_US
dc.subject.classification	Energy	en_US
dc.title	Long term prediction of unconventional oil production	en_US
dc.type	Journal Article
utslib.citation.volume	1	en_US
utslib.citation.volume	38	en_US
utslib.for	0502 Environmental Science and Management	en_US
pubs.embargo.period	Not known	en_US
pubs.organisational-group	/University of Technology Sydney
pubs.organisational-group	/University of Technology Sydney/DVC (Research)
pubs.organisational-group	/University of Technology Sydney/DVC (Research)/Institute For Sustainable Futures
utslib.copyright.status	open_access
pubs.issue	1	en_US
pubs.publication-status	Published	en_US
pubs.volume	38	en_US

Abstract:

Although considerable discussion surrounds unconventional oil's ability to mitigate the effects of peaking conventional oil production, very few models of unconventional oil production exist. The aim of this article was to project unconventional oil production to determine how significant its production may be. Two models were developed to predict the unconventional oil production, one model for in situ production and the other for mining the resources. Unconventional oil production is anticipated to reach between 18 and 32 Gb/y (49-88 Mb/d) in 2076-2084, before declining. If conventional oil production is at peak production then projected unconventional oil production cannot mitigate peaking of conventional oil alone. © 2009 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

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http://hdl.handle.net/10453/14784