It Is Still Possible to Achieve the Paris Climate Agreement: Regional, Sectoral, and Land-Use Pathways

Teske, S; Pregger, T; Simon, S; Naegler, T; Pagenkopf, J; Deniz, Ö; van den Adel, B; Dooley, K; Meinshausen, M

It Is Still Possible to Achieve the Paris Climate Agreement: Regional, Sectoral, and Land-Use Pathways

Teske, S

Pregger, T Simon, S Naegler, T Pagenkopf, J Deniz, Ö van den Adel, B Dooley, K Meinshausen, M

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Publisher:: MDPI
Publication Type:: Journal Article
Citation:: Energies, 2021, 14, (8)
Issue Date:: 2021-04-09

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Field	Value	Language
dc.contributor.author	Teske, S https://orcid.org/0000-0001-9582-2469
dc.contributor.author	Pregger, T
dc.contributor.author	Simon, S
dc.contributor.author	Naegler, T
dc.contributor.author	Pagenkopf, J
dc.contributor.author	Deniz, Ö
dc.contributor.author	van den Adel, B
dc.contributor.author	Dooley, K
dc.contributor.author	Meinshausen, M
dc.date.accessioned	2021-07-04T08:58:43Z
dc.date.available	2021-07-04T08:58:43Z
dc.date.issued	2021-04-09
dc.identifier.citation	Energies, 2021, 14, (8)
dc.identifier.issn	1996-1073
dc.identifier.issn	1996-1073
dc.identifier.uri	http://hdl.handle.net/10453/149808
dc.description.abstract	<jats:p>It is still possible to comply with the Paris Climate Agreement to maintain a global temperature ‘well below +2.0 °C’ above pre-industrial levels. We present two global non-overshoot pathways (+2.0 °C and +1.5 °C) with regional decarbonization targets for the four primary energy sectors—power, heating, transportation, and industry—in 5-year steps to 2050. We use normative scenarios to illustrate the effects of efficiency measures and renewable energy use, describe the roles of increased electrification of the final energy demand and synthetic fuels, and quantify the resulting electricity load increases for 72 sub-regions. Non-energy scenarios include a phase-out of net emissions from agriculture, forestry, and other land uses, reductions in non-carbon greenhouse gases, and land restoration to scale up atmospheric CO2 removal, estimated at −377 Gt CO2 to 2100. An estimate of the COVID-19 effects on the global energy demand is included and a sensitivity analysis describes the impacts if implementation is delayed by 5, 7, or 10 years, which would significantly reduce the likelihood of achieving the 1.5 °C goal. The analysis applies a model network consisting of energy system, power system, transport, land-use, and climate models.</jats:p>
dc.language	English
dc.publisher	MDPI
dc.relation.ispartof	Energies
dc.relation.isbasedon	10.3390/en14082103
dc.rights	info:eu-repo/semantics/closedAccess
dc.subject	02 Physical Sciences, 09 Engineering
dc.title	It Is Still Possible to Achieve the Paris Climate Agreement: Regional, Sectoral, and Land-Use Pathways
dc.type	Journal Article
utslib.citation.volume	14
utslib.for	02 Physical Sciences
utslib.for	09 Engineering
pubs.organisational-group	/University of Technology Sydney
pubs.organisational-group	/University of Technology Sydney/DVC (Research)
pubs.organisational-group	/University of Technology Sydney/DVC (Research)/Institute For Sustainable Futures
pubs.organisational-group	/University of Technology Sydney/Strength - ISF - Institute for Sustainable Futures
utslib.copyright.status	closed_access	*
dc.date.updated	2021-07-04T08:58:40Z
pubs.issue	8
pubs.publication-status	Published
pubs.volume	14
utslib.citation.issue	8

Abstract:

It is still possible to comply with the Paris Climate Agreement to maintain a global temperature ‘well below +2.0 °C’ above pre-industrial levels. We present two global non-overshoot pathways (+2.0 °C and +1.5 °C) with regional decarbonization targets for the four primary energy sectors—power, heating, transportation, and industry—in 5-year steps to 2050. We use normative scenarios to illustrate the effects of efficiency measures and renewable energy use, describe the roles of increased electrification of the final energy demand and synthetic fuels, and quantify the resulting electricity load increases for 72 sub-regions. Non-energy scenarios include a phase-out of net emissions from agriculture, forestry, and other land uses, reductions in non-carbon greenhouse gases, and land restoration to scale up atmospheric CO2 removal, estimated at −377 Gt CO2 to 2100. An estimate of the COVID-19 effects on the global energy demand is included and a sensitivity analysis describes the impacts if implementation is delayed by 5, 7, or 10 years, which would significantly reduce the likelihood of achieving the 1.5 °C goal. The analysis applies a model network consisting of energy system, power system, transport, land-use, and climate models.

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http://hdl.handle.net/10453/149808