Evolution of future world coal consumption: Insights from a distribution dynamics approach

Shi, X; Cheong, TS; Li, VJ

Evolution of future world coal consumption: Insights from a distribution dynamics approach

Shi, X

Cheong, TS Li, VJ

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Publisher:: INDERSCIENCE ENTERPRISES LTD
Publication Type:: Journal Article
Citation:: International Journal of Oil, Gas and Coal Technology, 2021, 27, (2), pp. 186-207
Issue Date:: 2021-01-01

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Field	Value	Language
dc.contributor.author	Shi, X https://orcid.org/0000-0001-9653-7395
dc.contributor.author	Cheong, TS
dc.contributor.author	Li, VJ
dc.date.accessioned	2021-11-21T21:51:02Z
dc.date.available	2021-11-21T21:51:02Z
dc.date.issued	2021-01-01
dc.identifier.citation	International Journal of Oil, Gas and Coal Technology, 2021, 27, (2), pp. 186-207
dc.identifier.issn	1753-3317
dc.identifier.issn	1753-3309
dc.identifier.uri	http://hdl.handle.net/10453/151769
dc.description.abstract	Global efforts in limiting coal consumption will be undermined if new major coal users emerge; however, very few studies have been conducted on the emergence of prospective coal users. The objective of this paper is thus to investigate how likely some developing countries will emerge to be significant coal users. The distribution dynamics approach is adopted to examine the evolution and transitional dynamics of coal consumption. Ergodic distributions and mobility probability plots are constructed for each grouping so as to provide detailed information on the current pattern and future development. Our study finds that some low income and lower middle income economies may increase their coal consumption in the future if coal remains to be a cheap energy source, while the countries in other income groups have entirely different behaviours. The findings suggest that global policy coordination focusing on the prospective coal users should be adopted.
dc.language	English
dc.publisher	INDERSCIENCE ENTERPRISES LTD
dc.relation.ispartof	International Journal of Oil, Gas and Coal Technology
dc.relation.isbasedon	10.1504/IJOGCT.2021.115546
dc.rights	info:eu-repo/semantics/closedAccess
dc.subject	0914 Resources Engineering and Extractive Metallurgy
dc.title	Evolution of future world coal consumption: Insights from a distribution dynamics approach
dc.type	Journal Article
utslib.citation.volume	27
utslib.for	0914 Resources Engineering and Extractive Metallurgy
pubs.organisational-group	/University of Technology Sydney
pubs.organisational-group	/University of Technology Sydney/DVC (International)
pubs.organisational-group	/University of Technology Sydney/DVC (International)/Australia-China Relations Institute
utslib.copyright.status	closed_access	*
dc.date.updated	2021-11-21T21:51:01Z
pubs.issue	2
pubs.publication-status	Published
pubs.volume	27
utslib.citation.issue	2

Abstract:

Global efforts in limiting coal consumption will be undermined if new major coal users emerge; however, very few studies have been conducted on the emergence of prospective coal users. The objective of this paper is thus to investigate how likely some developing countries will emerge to be significant coal users. The distribution dynamics approach is adopted to examine the evolution and transitional dynamics of coal consumption. Ergodic distributions and mobility probability plots are constructed for each grouping so as to provide detailed information on the current pattern and future development. Our study finds that some low income and lower middle income economies may increase their coal consumption in the future if coal remains to be a cheap energy source, while the countries in other income groups have entirely different behaviours. The findings suggest that global policy coordination focusing on the prospective coal users should be adopted.

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http://hdl.handle.net/10453/151769