Mathematical model forecasts year conventional oil will peak

Mohr, SH; Evans, GM

Mathematical model forecasts year conventional oil will peak

Mohr, SH Evans, GM

Permalink

Publication Type:: Journal Article
Citation:: Oil and Gas Journal, 2007, 105 (17)
Issue Date:: 2007-05-07

Closed Access

	Filename	Description	Size
	2010005296OK.pdf		6 MB	Adobe PDF	View/Open

Copyright Clearance Process

Recently Added
In Progress
Closed Access

This item is closed access and not available.

Full metadata record

Field	Value	Language
dc.contributor.author	Mohr, SH	en_US
dc.contributor.author	Evans, GM	en_US
dc.date.issued	2007-05-07	en_US
dc.identifier.citation	Oil and Gas Journal, 2007, 105 (17)	en_US
dc.identifier.issn	0030-1388	en_US
dc.identifier.uri	http://hdl.handle.net/10453/15299
dc.description.abstract	A new mathematical model can forecast when worldwide conventional oil production will peak with a minimal amount of information. The new model for forecasting worldwide conventional oil production requires historic oil production data (HPD(x)) and an estimate of ultimate recoverable reserves. The model generates an ideal bell curve (IBC(x)) from IBC(x) = 2Yp/1 + coshR(X-Xp) using data prior to anomalies in production. The curve has the total area equal to the ultimate recoverable reserves. The model considers crude plus NGL production. In the equation, Yp is the production at the peak year, R is a slope constant, x is the year and xp is the peak year. The xai-1 is the year the i-th anomaly occurred. The model requires conventional oil production data and an estimate of the world's total recoverable conventional oil as inputs.	en_US
dc.relation.ispartof	Oil and Gas Journal	en_US
dc.subject.classification	Energy	en_US
dc.title	Mathematical model forecasts year conventional oil will peak	en_US
dc.type	Journal Article
utslib.citation.volume	17	en_US
utslib.citation.volume	105	en_US
utslib.for	0907 Environmental Engineering	en_US
pubs.embargo.period	Not known	en_US
pubs.organisational-group	/University of Technology Sydney
pubs.organisational-group	/University of Technology Sydney/DVC (Research)
pubs.organisational-group	/University of Technology Sydney/DVC (Research)/Institute For Sustainable Futures
utslib.copyright.status	closed_access
pubs.issue	17	en_US
pubs.publication-status	Published	en_US
pubs.volume	105	en_US

Abstract:

A new mathematical model can forecast when worldwide conventional oil production will peak with a minimal amount of information. The new model for forecasting worldwide conventional oil production requires historic oil production data (HPD(x)) and an estimate of ultimate recoverable reserves. The model generates an ideal bell curve (IBC(x)) from IBC(x) = 2Yp/1 + coshR(X-Xp) using data prior to anomalies in production. The curve has the total area equal to the ultimate recoverable reserves. The model considers crude plus NGL production. In the equation, Yp is the production at the peak year, R is a slope constant, x is the year and xp is the peak year. The xai-1 is the year the i-th anomaly occurred. The model requires conventional oil production data and an estimate of the world's total recoverable conventional oil as inputs.

Please use this identifier to cite or link to this item:

http://hdl.handle.net/10453/15299