Mathematical model forecasts year conventional oil will peak

Publication Type:
Journal Article
Oil and Gas Journal, 2007, 105 (17)
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A new mathematical model can forecast when worldwide conventional oil production will peak with a minimal amount of information. The new model for forecasting worldwide conventional oil production requires historic oil production data (HPD(x)) and an estimate of ultimate recoverable reserves. The model generates an ideal bell curve (IBC(x)) from IBC(x) = 2Yp/1 + coshR(X-Xp) using data prior to anomalies in production. The curve has the total area equal to the ultimate recoverable reserves. The model considers crude plus NGL production. In the equation, Yp is the production at the peak year, R is a slope constant, x is the year and xp is the peak year. The xai-1 is the year the i-th anomaly occurred. The model requires conventional oil production data and an estimate of the world's total recoverable conventional oil as inputs.
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