Long-term safety assessment of large-scale arch dam based on non-probabilistic reliability analysis
- Publisher:
- Elsevier
- Publication Type:
- Journal Article
- Citation:
- Structures, 2021, 32, pp. 298-312
- Issue Date:
- 2021-08-01
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| Filename | Description | Size | |||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1-s2.0-S2352012421001922-main.pdf | 7.46 MB |
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Long-term service status of a large-scale arch dam is affected by variations of loads and material properties with randomness and fuzziness. This study aims to resolve the problems of a variety of uncertain variables that coexist in the reliability assessment of arch dams. Firstly, a time-varying non-probabilistic reliability (N-PR) solution method of the arch dams is proposed based on the convex set model. Subsequently, non-probabilistic target reliability indexes are put forward according to the defined probabilistic reliability indexes during long-term operation of the arch dams. Afterwards, a fuzzy prediction index is formulated based on the mixed statistical model and the Info-gap model under the most unfavorable reservoir water depth, so as to timely find defects and avoid the potential failure of the arch dams. Numerical simulation on the Jinping I arch dam is conducted to validate the proposed methods. The possible failure modes and the long-term N-PR of the world's highest arch dam is appraised, and the fuzzy prediction indexes are concluded. Research results can provide a feasible way for large-scale arch dam reliability and safety assessment.
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