Terrorism Risks and Economic Assessment of Infrastructure Protection against Progressive Collapse

Stewart, MG

Terrorism Risks and Economic Assessment of Infrastructure Protection against Progressive Collapse

Stewart, MG

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Publisher:: ASCE-AMER SOC CIVIL ENGINEERS
Publication Type:: Journal Article
Citation:: Journal of Structural Engineering (United States), 2021, 147, (10)
Issue Date:: 2021-10-01

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Field	Value	Language
dc.contributor.author	Stewart, MG
dc.date.accessioned	2022-08-06T09:46:49Z
dc.date.available	2022-08-06T09:46:49Z
dc.date.issued	2021-10-01
dc.identifier.citation	Journal of Structural Engineering (United States), 2021, 147, (10)
dc.identifier.issn	0733-9445
dc.identifier.issn	1943-541X
dc.identifier.uri	http://hdl.handle.net/10453/159709
dc.description.abstract	Existing infrastructure has proven to be resilient and robust against car and truck bombings. The impacts of terrorist attacks are often overstated, and the tragic events of 9/11 appear to be more of an aberration than a harbinger of worse to come. A case study describes fatality risks from progressive collapse caused by a large truck bomb, and then assesses probabilistic costs and benefits of design measures mandated by the United States to mitigate against progressive collapse for new federal government buildings. It was found that disproportionate collapse is a rare event, and there have been no fatalities from disproportionate collapse or other structural damage in Western countries in the 20 years since the tragic events of 9/11. Clearly, a specific threat involving a massive and larger than expected vehicle-borne improvised explosive device (VBIED) attack can lead to blast-resistant strengthening for buildings to be justified and cost-effective. However, the likelihood of nonspecific threats will need to exceed 2.5×10-4 per building per year for structural strengthening against progressive collapse to be cost-effective. This is equivalent to an average of six VBIED threats against large federal buildings per year, and that the threat involves a VBIED large enough to potentially cause progressive collapse. Policing and intelligence measures to warn or prevent terrorist attacks are likely to be a more cost-effective countermeasure.
dc.language	English
dc.publisher	ASCE-AMER SOC CIVIL ENGINEERS
dc.relation	http://purl.org/au-research/grants/arc/DP210101487
dc.relation.ispartof	Journal of Structural Engineering (United States)
dc.relation.isbasedon	10.1061/(ASCE)ST.1943-541X.0003149
dc.rights	info:eu-repo/semantics/closedAccess
dc.subject	0905 Civil Engineering, 0912 Materials Engineering, 0913 Mechanical Engineering
dc.subject.classification	Civil Engineering
dc.title	Terrorism Risks and Economic Assessment of Infrastructure Protection against Progressive Collapse
dc.type	Journal Article
utslib.citation.volume	147
utslib.for	0905 Civil Engineering
utslib.for	0912 Materials Engineering
utslib.for	0913 Mechanical Engineering
pubs.organisational-group	/University of Technology Sydney
pubs.organisational-group	/University of Technology Sydney/Faculty of Engineering and Information Technology
pubs.organisational-group	/University of Technology Sydney/Faculty of Engineering and Information Technology/School of Civil and Environmental Engineering
utslib.copyright.status	closed_access	*
dc.date.updated	2022-08-06T09:46:48Z
pubs.issue	10
pubs.publication-status	Published
pubs.volume	147
utslib.citation.issue	10

Abstract:

Existing infrastructure has proven to be resilient and robust against car and truck bombings. The impacts of terrorist attacks are often overstated, and the tragic events of 9/11 appear to be more of an aberration than a harbinger of worse to come. A case study describes fatality risks from progressive collapse caused by a large truck bomb, and then assesses probabilistic costs and benefits of design measures mandated by the United States to mitigate against progressive collapse for new federal government buildings. It was found that disproportionate collapse is a rare event, and there have been no fatalities from disproportionate collapse or other structural damage in Western countries in the 20 years since the tragic events of 9/11. Clearly, a specific threat involving a massive and larger than expected vehicle-borne improvised explosive device (VBIED) attack can lead to blast-resistant strengthening for buildings to be justified and cost-effective. However, the likelihood of nonspecific threats will need to exceed 2.5×10-4 per building per year for structural strengthening against progressive collapse to be cost-effective. This is equivalent to an average of six VBIED threats against large federal buildings per year, and that the threat involves a VBIED large enough to potentially cause progressive collapse. Policing and intelligence measures to warn or prevent terrorist attacks are likely to be a more cost-effective countermeasure.

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http://hdl.handle.net/10453/159709