The Trump effect downunder: U.S. allies, Australian strategic culture, and the politics of path dependence

Beeson, M; Bloomfield, A

The Trump effect downunder: U.S. allies, Australian strategic culture, and the politics of path dependence

Beeson, M

Bloomfield, A

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Publisher:: ROUTLEDGE JOURNALS, TAYLOR & FRANCIS LTD
Publication Type:: Journal Article
Citation:: Contemporary Security Policy, 2019, 40, (3), pp. 335-361
Issue Date:: 2019-07-03

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Field	Value	Language
dc.contributor.author	Beeson, M https://orcid.org/0000-0002-8659-262X
dc.contributor.author	Bloomfield, A
dc.date.accessioned	2022-09-27T05:47:29Z
dc.date.available	2022-09-27T05:47:29Z
dc.date.issued	2019-07-03
dc.identifier.citation	Contemporary Security Policy, 2019, 40, (3), pp. 335-361
dc.identifier.issn	1352-3260
dc.identifier.issn	1743-8764
dc.identifier.uri	http://hdl.handle.net/10453/162139
dc.description.abstract	Donald Trump’s election precipitated a debate in Australia about the value of retaining close alliance ties with the United States. Similar dynamics are discernible in other U.S. allies as the negative impact of Trump administration policies becomes clearer. Yet despite this “Trump effect,” we argue Australia is unlikely to distance itself from the United States because at the core of Australia’s strategic culture is a very positive “cultural orientation” toward the United States that is highly institutionalized in treaties, formal bilateral ties, Track 2 diplomacy, and public opinion. Such institutionalized ties have powerful path dependent effects. Accordingly, we conclude that the Trump effect does not constitute a powerful enough “exogenous shock” to move Australia off its well-worn grand-strategic path. But this alliance relationship is marked by both high cultural affinity and high institutionalization: American policy-makers should seriously consider whether other U.S. allies can tolerate similar levels of “stress.”.
dc.language	English
dc.publisher	ROUTLEDGE JOURNALS, TAYLOR & FRANCIS LTD
dc.relation.ispartof	Contemporary Security Policy
dc.relation.isbasedon	10.1080/13523260.2019.1594534
dc.rights	info:eu-repo/semantics/closedAccess
dc.subject	1606 Political Science
dc.title	The Trump effect downunder: U.S. allies, Australian strategic culture, and the politics of path dependence
dc.type	Journal Article
utslib.citation.volume	40
utslib.for	1606 Political Science
pubs.organisational-group	/University of Technology Sydney
pubs.organisational-group	/University of Technology Sydney/DVC (International)
pubs.organisational-group	/University of Technology Sydney/DVC (International)/Australia-China Relations Institute
utslib.copyright.status	closed_access	*
dc.date.updated	2022-09-27T05:47:09Z
pubs.issue	3
pubs.publication-status	Published
pubs.volume	40
utslib.citation.issue	3

Abstract:

Donald Trump’s election precipitated a debate in Australia about the value of retaining close alliance ties with the United States. Similar dynamics are discernible in other U.S. allies as the negative impact of Trump administration policies becomes clearer. Yet despite this “Trump effect,” we argue Australia is unlikely to distance itself from the United States because at the core of Australia’s strategic culture is a very positive “cultural orientation” toward the United States that is highly institutionalized in treaties, formal bilateral ties, Track 2 diplomacy, and public opinion. Such institutionalized ties have powerful path dependent effects. Accordingly, we conclude that the Trump effect does not constitute a powerful enough “exogenous shock” to move Australia off its well-worn grand-strategic path. But this alliance relationship is marked by both high cultural affinity and high institutionalization: American policy-makers should seriously consider whether other U.S. allies can tolerate similar levels of “stress.”.

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http://hdl.handle.net/10453/162139