For better or worse, in sickness and in health: Australia-China political relations and trade

Golley, J; Agarwal, V; Laurenceson, J; Qiu, T

For better or worse, in sickness and in health: Australia-China political relations and trade

Golley, J Agarwal, V Laurenceson, J

Qiu, T

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Publisher:: Informa UK Limited
Publication Type:: Journal Article
Citation:: China Economic Journal, 2022, 15, (3), pp. 290-309
Issue Date:: 2022-01-01

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Field	Value	Language
dc.contributor.author	Golley, J
dc.contributor.author	Agarwal, V
dc.contributor.author	Laurenceson, J https://orcid.org/0000-0002-3991-0082
dc.contributor.author	Qiu, T
dc.date.accessioned	2022-11-01T01:52:14Z
dc.date.available	2022-11-01T01:52:14Z
dc.date.issued	2022-01-01
dc.identifier.citation	China Economic Journal, 2022, 15, (3), pp. 290-309
dc.identifier.issn	1753-8963
dc.identifier.issn	1753-8971
dc.identifier.uri	http://hdl.handle.net/10453/163103
dc.description.abstract	This paper quantifies the effects of shocks in bilateral political relations on Australia’s merchandise goods exports to China between 2001 and 2020. Using a vector autoregression framework, our estimates suggest that short-term fluctuations in political relations have no long-run effects on Australia’s aggregate export growth to China over this period, nor in any of three sub-periods analysed. A disaggregated analysis of 19 HS2 sectors reveals heterogenous short-run effects across sectors and time periods, with numerous sectors indicating the seemingly perverse finding that an increase in political cooperation/conflict is associated with a decrease/increase in export growth, with a lag of one to four months. We propose two hypotheses that are consistent with these findings, ‘doubling down’ and ‘dropping the ball’, contributing new understanding to the political relations-trade nexus in the context of a bilateral relationship that will likely be characterised by both cooperation and conflict in the decades ahead.
dc.language	en
dc.publisher	Informa UK Limited
dc.relation.ispartof	China Economic Journal
dc.relation.isbasedon	10.1080/17538963.2022.2117180
dc.rights	This is an Accepted Manuscript of an article published by Taylor & Francis in China Economic Journal on 2022-08-29, available online: https://www.tandfonline.com/10.1080/17538963.2022.2117180.
dc.rights	info:eu-repo/semantics/embargoedAccess
dc.subject	1402 Applied Economics
dc.title	For better or worse, in sickness and in health: Australia-China political relations and trade
dc.type	Journal Article
utslib.citation.volume	15
utslib.for	1402 Applied Economics
pubs.organisational-group	/University of Technology Sydney
pubs.organisational-group	/University of Technology Sydney/DVC (International)
pubs.organisational-group	/University of Technology Sydney/DVC (International)/Australia-China Relations Institute
utslib.copyright.status	open_access	*
utslib.copyright.embargo	2024-02-28T00:00:00+1000Z
dc.date.updated	2022-11-01T01:52:13Z
pubs.issue	3
pubs.publication-status	Published
pubs.volume	15
utslib.citation.issue	3

Abstract:

This paper quantifies the effects of shocks in bilateral political relations on Australia’s merchandise goods exports to China between 2001 and 2020. Using a vector autoregression framework, our estimates suggest that short-term fluctuations in political relations have no long-run effects on Australia’s aggregate export growth to China over this period, nor in any of three sub-periods analysed. A disaggregated analysis of 19 HS2 sectors reveals heterogenous short-run effects across sectors and time periods, with numerous sectors indicating the seemingly perverse finding that an increase in political cooperation/conflict is associated with a decrease/increase in export growth, with a lag of one to four months. We propose two hypotheses that are consistent with these findings, ‘doubling down’ and ‘dropping the ball’, contributing new understanding to the political relations-trade nexus in the context of a bilateral relationship that will likely be characterised by both cooperation and conflict in the decades ahead.

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http://hdl.handle.net/10453/163103