Rapid generation of political conflict simulations for scenarios around the world
- Publisher:
- CRC Press
- Publication Type:
- Chapter
- Citation:
- Modeling Sociocultural Influences on Decision Making: Understanding Conflict, Enabling Stability, 2017, pp. 335-360
- Issue Date:
- 2017-09-19
Closed Access
| Filename | Description | Size | |||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Binder1.pdf | Published version | 3.46 MB |
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This chapter describes a prototype of a rapid scenario generator that has been demonstrated in a field setting in 2014. The generator consists of a set of screens that assists a human in quickly specifying political conflict scenarios around the world. The goal is to produce models that can simulate the scenarios and thereby help to assess the impact of the alternative COA the user might take to influence the scenario outcomes. The generator is able to speed up scenario construction since it uses analogical or case-based reasoning (CBR), and it is built upon a repository of hundreds of past StateSim models of political groups, actors, institutions, and other conhict scenario elements. This chapter introduces the generator purpose in the section "Introduction and Purpose." Background on CBR and StateSim are in the section "Architecture and Cycle of the Case-Based Generator." This walks through a fictional state use case to create a scenario and a set of StateSim models in the section "The Generator Elicitation Screens." We then explain the repository of past models and some tools to explore what is in it in the section "CBR and the Repository of Past Cases." Finally, it discusses the results to date and next steps in the section "Conclusions and Next Steps." At the end of the chapter, we discuss the detailed application of our platform to the attached megacity use case.
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