Predictors of construction time in detached housing projects

The University of Melbourne
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Forsythe Perry, Davidson Warwick, and Phua Florence 2010, 'Predictors of construction time in detached housing projects', , The University of Melbourne,, , pp. A019-1-A019-17.
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Building on previous literature on construction time performance (CTP), this study looks at the extent to which Gross Floor Area (GFA) and Number of Levels (NoL) are important factors in determining the construction time in Australian detached housing projects. Using a dataset of 196 comparable detached housing projects the results show that while GFA and NoL correlate strongly with estimated construction time, they correlated weakly with actual construction time. Dynamically changing events during construction appear to be the reason for the difference. Analyses indicate that cost variations brought about by Design changes, Site management errors; Site workmanship problems and Unforeseen site problems are significant factors in explaining the difference between actual and estimated construction time. Further, these factors affect larger housing projects (>400m2) more significantly than they do smaller projects (<350m2). It would therefore seem that even though GFA on its own has a poor correlation with actual construction time, this improves when teamed with the above cost variations. These results open up avenues for future research to look more closely at the effects of project dynamics (e.g. using causes of cost increases as a proxy) when predicting CTP, rather than relying too heavily on static variables like GFA or NoL. It is important that such variables are taken into account as a basis for teaching and promulgating an analytical basis to predicting construction time.
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