Real-Time Prediction System of Train Carriage Load Based on Multi-Stream Fuzzy Learning

Institute of Electrical and Electronics Engineers (IEEE)
Publication Type:
Journal Article
Immunol Invest, 2022, 23, (9), pp. 15155-15165
Issue Date:
Full metadata record
When a train leaves a platform, knowing the carriage load (the number of passengers in each carriage) of this train will support train managers to guide passengers at the next platform to choose carriages to avoid congestion. This capacity has become critical since the onset of the pandemic. However, with the dynamicity of passengers and the speed of trains improved (about 3 minutes travel between stations) as well as the station stop period reduced (60–90 second per station), the real-time prediction is more challenging. This paper presents an intelligent system, which is developed in collaboration with Sydney Trains, for real-time predicting carriage load across a city passenger train network. The system comprises three innovations. First, a fuzzy time-matching method significantly improves prediction accuracy in the uncertain situations and allows noisy historical data to be used for training. Second, the LightGBM model is extended with an incremental learning scheme to make forecasting in real-time possible. Third, a new multi-stream learning strategy that merges data streams with similar concept drift patterns is pioneered to increase the amount of suitable training data while reducing generalization errors. A comprehensive suite of practical tests on real-world datasets demonstrates the merit of these solutions.
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