Climate Sensitivity Analysis: All Greenhouse Gases and Aerosols

Publisher:
Springer Nature
Publication Type:
Chapter
Citation:
Achieving the Paris Climate Agreement Goals, 2022, pp. 273-290
Issue Date:
2022
Full metadata record
AbstractThis section provides an overview of all greenhouse gases (GHGs) and aerosols, the sources, their contributions to overall emissions, and their likely cumulative effects on global temperature increases. The non-energy GHG modelling in this chapter is an update of the probabilistic assessment of the global mean temperature published in the first part of Achieving the Paris Climate Agreements, Chap. 12 (Meinshausen 2019). The 1.5 °C energy and non-energy pathways were assessed by Climate Resource—specialists in assessing the warming implications of emissions scenarios. The analysis focuses on the derivation of the trajectories of non-CO2 emissions that match the trajectories of energy and industrial CO2 emissions and evaluates the multi-gas pathways against various temperature thresholds and carbon budgets until 2100. (120).Section 7.2 is based on the following: ‘Documentation of ‘UTS scenarios – Probabilistic assessment of global-mean temperatures’ by Climate Resource Malte Meinshausen, Zebedee Nicholls, October 2021.
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