Evaluating long-term co-product mineral supply and exploration interdependencies using the PEMMSS model
- Publication Type:
- Conference Proceeding
- Citation:
- 2023, pp. 668-675
- Issue Date:
- 2023-06
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Demand for many specialty mineral and metal commodities is rapidly increasing due to their use in advanced alloys, renewable energy systems and as part of other technologies required to decarbonise the global economy. Many of these specialty, often ‘critical’, commodities are produced in only small quantities as a co- or by-product of bulk commodity supply. In these cases they will typically represent only a minor contributor to the revenue realised from a mineral processing, smelting or refining operation. As a result of this, mineral exploration and the development of mining, smelting and refining operations capable of producing specialty co-product commodities is often driven by the demand and market conditions for bulk commodities. Despite the increasingly broad recognition of these supply dependencies, we still have a limited understanding of how the supply of one commodity influences the supply potential of others over the long-term. Existing scenario models for mineral supply typically only consider commodities on an individual basis, with relatively few attempts to develop integrated scenario models that are capable of considering complex supply interdependencies between commodities. With that in mind, the Primary Exploration, Mining and Metal Supply Scenario (PEMMSS) model was developed to enable mine-by-mine, deposit-by-deposit modelling of long-term co-product supply and exploration dynamics. This paper provides a brief summary of the PEMMSS model and an example of model outputs. Alongside this, a roadmap for application of the PEMMSS model is presented that includes four main stages: (1) Model development (completed). (2) Scenarios for individual base metal commodities. (3) Integrated scenarios for co-product metal commodities. (4) Adding environmental extensions (life cycle inventories, greenhouse gas emissions, water consumption, land-use impacts). Application of the PEMMSS model will allow us to better understand interdependent systems of mineral and metal co-production and the implications for long-term sustainable development. We anticipate that this will provide improved understanding of the technology, investment and policy interventions that will be required to avoid structural material supply bottlenecks during the sustainability and decarbonisation transition.
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