Developing bottom-up understanding of primary copper supply under the shared socio-economic pathways

Northey, S; Pauliuk, S; Giurco, D; Yellishetty, M

Developing bottom-up understanding of primary copper supply under the shared socio-economic pathways

Northey, S

Pauliuk, S Giurco, D Yellishetty, M

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Publication Type:: Conference Proceeding
Citation:: 2023
Issue Date:: 2023-02

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Field	Value	Language
dc.contributor.author	Northey, S https://orcid.org/0000-0001-9001-8842
dc.contributor.author	Pauliuk, S
dc.contributor.author	Giurco, D
dc.contributor.author	Yellishetty, M
dc.date	2023-02-15
dc.date.accessioned	2023-10-16T03:57:10Z
dc.date.available	2023-10-16T03:57:10Z
dc.date.issued	2023-02
dc.identifier.citation	2023
dc.identifier.uri	http://hdl.handle.net/10453/172696
dc.description.abstract	Demand for some metals (e.g. Cu, Li, Ni) may rapidly grow as we pursue decarbonisation through electrification and renewable energy roll-out. Prevailing approaches to scenario modelling of material supply and demand utilise highly aggregated, top-down data sources and methods. This produces results useful for understanding general trends, but that may have limited ability to inform more detailed questions of relevance for government policy makers and industry stakeholders. These go beyond the simplistic question of “will we run out of a mineral” that has been the focus for much modelling in the past, and extend into more specific questions such as how many new production facilities have to be opened by year x and what investment is required? What are the potential environmental and social impacts? Or how will development of different deposit types influence co-product mineral supply? In response to this, we developed the Primary Exploration, Mining and Metal Supply Scenario (PEMMSS) model to allow a bottom-up evaluation of deposit discovery, mine development (and closure) and co-product recovery requirements necessary to meet long-term material demand. The model is designed to interface with primary demand outputs of broader models for socio-economic material metabolism. As an initial application, we assess how primary copper supply may evolve in response to long-term demand and different resource efficiency strategies under the second shared socio-economic pathway (SSP2).
dc.language	en
dc.relation	University of Technology Sydney
dc.relation.ispartof	IRTC 2023 - Raw Materials for a Sustainable Future
dc.rights	info:eu-repo/semantics/openAccess
dc.title	Developing bottom-up understanding of primary copper supply under the shared socio-economic pathways
dc.type	Conference Proceeding
utslib.location.activity	Lille, France
pubs.organisational-group	/University of Technology Sydney
pubs.organisational-group	/University of Technology Sydney/DVC (Research)
pubs.organisational-group	/University of Technology Sydney/DVC (Research)/Institute For Sustainable Futures
utslib.copyright.status	open_access	*
pubs.consider-herdc	false
dc.date.updated	2023-10-16T03:57:09Z
pubs.finish-date	2023-02-17
pubs.publication-status	Published
pubs.start-date	2023-02-15

Abstract:

Demand for some metals (e.g. Cu, Li, Ni) may rapidly grow as we pursue decarbonisation through electrification and renewable energy roll-out. Prevailing approaches to scenario modelling of material supply and demand utilise highly aggregated, top-down data sources and methods. This produces results useful for understanding general trends, but that may have limited ability to inform more detailed questions of relevance for government policy makers and industry stakeholders. These go beyond the simplistic question of “will we run out of a mineral” that has been the focus for much modelling in the past, and extend into more specific questions such as how many new production facilities have to be opened by year x and what investment is required? What are the potential environmental and social impacts? Or how will development of different deposit types influence co-product mineral supply? In response to this, we developed the Primary Exploration, Mining and Metal Supply Scenario (PEMMSS) model to allow a bottom-up evaluation of deposit discovery, mine development (and closure) and co-product recovery requirements necessary to meet long-term material demand. The model is designed to interface with primary demand outputs of broader models for socio-economic material metabolism. As an initial application, we assess how primary copper supply may evolve in response to long-term demand and different resource efficiency strategies under the second shared socio-economic pathway (SSP2).

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http://hdl.handle.net/10453/172696