A new approach for modelling primary mineral supply scenarios and associated environmental impacts
- Publication Type:
- Conference Proceeding
- Citation:
- 2023
- Issue Date:
- 2023-10
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| Filename | Description | Size | |||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| A new approach for modelling primary mineral supply scenarios and associated environmental impacts.pdf | Accepted version | 74.92 kB |
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The mining sector is broadly recognised as a major contributor to local environmental degradation and a potential disruptor of social cohesion. At the same time, there can also be substantial contributions to the development of economic opportunity and industry in the regions where mining operates. Many of the trade-offs and complexities surrounding mine sites can only fully be appreciated on a case-by-case basis and require understanding of the context of specific regions and supply chains in which they operate. Despite this, most prospective material flow analysis and scenario modelling approaches used to understand long-term sustainable development and decarbonisation trajectories place a ‘black box’ around primary mineral supply, aggregating data to a point where potential outcomes at local scales can no longer be interrogated. In doing so, we lose information on the uncertainties and diversity of potential outcomes across the full cohort of mining operations required to meet future mineral demand. This presentation will provide an overview of the Primary Exploration, Mining and Metal Supply Scenario (PEMMSS) model that has been developed to translate scenarios for aggregated mineral demand into a more nuanced and disaggregated understanding of how primary mineral supply may evolve to meet this. Some key advantages of the model include the ability to incorporate detailed information for known mineral deposits, simultaneous scenario modelling of co-product commodities, as well as the ability to stochastically model uncertain mineral exploration and mine development outcomes. We will present a series of preliminary scenarios for major co-product commodity groups, alongside an approach for improving prospective life cycle analysis through combination of the scenario results with rich datasets for the natural resource requirements of mining and mineral processing operations.
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