The Evolution of Mass Atrocity Early Warning in the UN Secretariat: Fit for Purpose?

McLoughlin, S; Gifkins, J; Bellamy, AJ

The Evolution of Mass Atrocity Early Warning in the UN Secretariat: Fit for Purpose?

McLoughlin, S Gifkins, J

Bellamy, AJ

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Publisher:: Taylor & Francis
Publication Type:: Journal Article
Citation:: International Peacekeeping, 2023, ahead-of-print, (ahead-of-print), pp. 1-29
Issue Date:: 2023-01-01

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Field	Value	Language
dc.contributor.author	McLoughlin, S
dc.contributor.author	Gifkins, J https://orcid.org/0000-0003-0551-787X
dc.contributor.author	Bellamy, AJ
dc.date.accessioned	2023-10-18T03:57:50Z
dc.date.available	2023-10-18T03:57:50Z
dc.date.issued	2023-01-01
dc.identifier.citation	International Peacekeeping, 2023, ahead-of-print, (ahead-of-print), pp. 1-29
dc.identifier.issn	1353-3312
dc.identifier.issn	1743-906X
dc.identifier.uri	http://hdl.handle.net/10453/172785
dc.description.abstract	A lack of early warning by the United Nations Secretariat of the Rwandan genocide contributed, in part, to the failure of the international community to respond in a timely manner to this crisis. In the intervening decades, alongside the strengthening of the norm of civilian protection, the UN has enhanced its capacity for early warning through greater personnel numbers, as well as the refining of risk analysis through the development of frameworks of analysis for atrocity crimes. However, to date, there has been no systematic study of the evolution and practice of mass atrocity early warning within the United Nations Secretariat, and the impact this has had on UN-led responses to impending and unfolding cases of mass atrocity crimes. In this article, we analyse the evolution of early warning within the UN Secretariat and how the Secretariat responded (or failed to respond) to escalating violence in Rwanda, Darfur, Côte d’Ivoire and Ethiopia. This analysis finds that despite incremental improvements in mass atrocity early warning in the UN Secretariat (which contributed to more timely responses in Côte d’Ivoire), more recent cases demonstrate that failure is no longer due to lack of early warning, but a result of lack of political will.
dc.language	en
dc.publisher	Taylor & Francis
dc.relation.ispartof	International Peacekeeping
dc.relation.isbasedon	10.1080/13533312.2023.2236929
dc.rights	info:eu-repo/semantics/openAccess
dc.subject	1606 Political Science, 1801 Law
dc.subject.classification	4404 Development studies
dc.subject.classification	4408 Political science
dc.subject.classification	4803 International and comparative law
dc.title	The Evolution of Mass Atrocity Early Warning in the UN Secretariat: Fit for Purpose?
dc.type	Journal Article
utslib.citation.volume	ahead-of-print
utslib.for	1606 Political Science
utslib.for	1801 Law
pubs.organisational-group	/University of Technology Sydney
pubs.organisational-group	/University of Technology Sydney/Faculty of Arts and Social Sciences
pubs.organisational-group	/University of Technology Sydney/Faculty of Arts and Social Sciences/School of International Studies
utslib.copyright.status	open_access	*
dc.date.updated	2023-10-18T03:57:49Z
pubs.issue	ahead-of-print
pubs.publication-status	Published
pubs.volume	ahead-of-print
utslib.citation.issue	ahead-of-print

Abstract:

A lack of early warning by the United Nations Secretariat of the Rwandan genocide contributed, in part, to the failure of the international community to respond in a timely manner to this crisis. In the intervening decades, alongside the strengthening of the norm of civilian protection, the UN has enhanced its capacity for early warning through greater personnel numbers, as well as the refining of risk analysis through the development of frameworks of analysis for atrocity crimes. However, to date, there has been no systematic study of the evolution and practice of mass atrocity early warning within the United Nations Secretariat, and the impact this has had on UN-led responses to impending and unfolding cases of mass atrocity crimes. In this article, we analyse the evolution of early warning within the UN Secretariat and how the Secretariat responded (or failed to respond) to escalating violence in Rwanda, Darfur, Côte d’Ivoire and Ethiopia. This analysis finds that despite incremental improvements in mass atrocity early warning in the UN Secretariat (which contributed to more timely responses in Côte d’Ivoire), more recent cases demonstrate that failure is no longer due to lack of early warning, but a result of lack of political will.

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http://hdl.handle.net/10453/172785