Wastewater-based epidemiology predicts COVID-19-induced weekly new hospital admissions in over 150 USA counties.
- Publisher:
- NATURE PORTFOLIO
- Publication Type:
- Journal Article
- Citation:
- Nat Commun, 2023, 14, (1), pp. 4548
- Issue Date:
- 2023-07-28
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Full metadata record
Field | Value | Language |
---|---|---|
dc.contributor.author |
Li, X https://orcid.org/0000-0003-1768-9556 |
|
dc.contributor.author | Liu, H | |
dc.contributor.author | Gao, L | |
dc.contributor.author | Sherchan, SP | |
dc.contributor.author | Zhou, T | |
dc.contributor.author | Khan, SJ | |
dc.contributor.author | van Loosdrecht, MCM | |
dc.contributor.author |
Wang, Q https://orcid.org/0000-0002-5744-2331 |
|
dc.date.accessioned | 2023-11-03T04:18:45Z | |
dc.date.available | 2023-07-19 | |
dc.date.available | 2023-11-03T04:18:45Z | |
dc.date.issued | 2023-07-28 | |
dc.identifier.citation | Nat Commun, 2023, 14, (1), pp. 4548 | |
dc.identifier.issn | 2041-1723 | |
dc.identifier.issn | 2041-1723 | |
dc.identifier.uri | http://hdl.handle.net/10453/172972 | |
dc.description.abstract | Although the coronavirus disease (COVID-19) emergency status is easing, the COVID-19 pandemic continues to affect healthcare systems globally. It is crucial to have a reliable and population-wide prediction tool for estimating COVID-19-induced hospital admissions. We evaluated the feasibility of using wastewater-based epidemiology (WBE) to predict COVID-19-induced weekly new hospitalizations in 159 counties across 45 states in the United States of America (USA), covering a population of nearly 100 million. Using county-level weekly wastewater surveillance data (over 20 months), WBE-based models were established through the random forest algorithm. WBE-based models accurately predicted the county-level weekly new admissions, allowing a preparation window of 1-4 weeks. In real applications, periodically updated WBE-based models showed good accuracy and transferability, with mean absolute error within 4-6 patients/100k population for upcoming weekly new hospitalization numbers. Our study demonstrated the potential of using WBE as an effective method to provide early warnings for healthcare systems. | |
dc.format | Electronic | |
dc.language | eng | |
dc.publisher | NATURE PORTFOLIO | |
dc.relation | http://purl.org/au-research/grants/arc/FT200100264 | |
dc.relation.ispartof | Nat Commun | |
dc.relation.isbasedon | 10.1038/s41467-023-40305-x | |
dc.rights | info:eu-repo/semantics/openAccess | |
dc.subject.mesh | Humans | |
dc.subject.mesh | Wastewater-Based Epidemiological Monitoring | |
dc.subject.mesh | Pandemics | |
dc.subject.mesh | Wastewater | |
dc.subject.mesh | COVID-19 | |
dc.subject.mesh | Hospitalization | |
dc.subject.mesh | Hospitals | |
dc.subject.mesh | Humans | |
dc.subject.mesh | Hospitalization | |
dc.subject.mesh | Hospitals | |
dc.subject.mesh | Pandemics | |
dc.subject.mesh | Wastewater-Based Epidemiological Monitoring | |
dc.subject.mesh | COVID-19 | |
dc.subject.mesh | Wastewater | |
dc.subject.mesh | Humans | |
dc.subject.mesh | Wastewater-Based Epidemiological Monitoring | |
dc.subject.mesh | Pandemics | |
dc.subject.mesh | Wastewater | |
dc.subject.mesh | COVID-19 | |
dc.subject.mesh | Hospitalization | |
dc.subject.mesh | Hospitals | |
dc.title | Wastewater-based epidemiology predicts COVID-19-induced weekly new hospital admissions in over 150 USA counties. | |
dc.type | Journal Article | |
utslib.citation.volume | 14 | |
utslib.location.activity | England | |
pubs.organisational-group | /University of Technology Sydney | |
pubs.organisational-group | /University of Technology Sydney/Faculty of Engineering and Information Technology | |
pubs.organisational-group | /University of Technology Sydney/Faculty of Engineering and Information Technology/School of Civil and Environmental Engineering | |
pubs.organisational-group | /University of Technology Sydney/Strength - CTWW - Centre for Technology in Water and Wastewater Treatment | |
utslib.copyright.status | open_access | * |
dc.date.updated | 2023-11-03T04:18:40Z | |
pubs.issue | 1 | |
pubs.publication-status | Published online | |
pubs.volume | 14 | |
utslib.citation.issue | 1 |
Abstract:
Although the coronavirus disease (COVID-19) emergency status is easing, the COVID-19 pandemic continues to affect healthcare systems globally. It is crucial to have a reliable and population-wide prediction tool for estimating COVID-19-induced hospital admissions. We evaluated the feasibility of using wastewater-based epidemiology (WBE) to predict COVID-19-induced weekly new hospitalizations in 159 counties across 45 states in the United States of America (USA), covering a population of nearly 100 million. Using county-level weekly wastewater surveillance data (over 20 months), WBE-based models were established through the random forest algorithm. WBE-based models accurately predicted the county-level weekly new admissions, allowing a preparation window of 1-4 weeks. In real applications, periodically updated WBE-based models showed good accuracy and transferability, with mean absolute error within 4-6 patients/100k population for upcoming weekly new hospitalization numbers. Our study demonstrated the potential of using WBE as an effective method to provide early warnings for healthcare systems.
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