Emission Reduction Tournament Would Postpone Carbon Peaking in China

Chen, M; Yu, D; Shi, X; Wang, K

Emission Reduction Tournament Would Postpone Carbon Peaking in China

Chen, M Yu, D Shi, X

Wang, K

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Publisher:: SPRINGER SINGAPORE PTE LTD
Publication Type:: Journal Article
Citation:: Chinese Political Science Review, 2023, 8, (2), pp. 273-303
Issue Date:: 2023-06-01

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Field	Value	Language
dc.contributor.author	Chen, M
dc.contributor.author	Yu, D
dc.contributor.author	Shi, X https://orcid.org/0000-0001-9653-7395
dc.contributor.author	Wang, K
dc.date.accessioned	2024-03-18T05:51:06Z
dc.date.available	2024-03-18T05:51:06Z
dc.date.issued	2023-06-01
dc.identifier.citation	Chinese Political Science Review, 2023, 8, (2), pp. 273-303
dc.identifier.issn	2365-4244
dc.identifier.issn	2365-4252
dc.identifier.uri	http://hdl.handle.net/10453/176860
dc.description.abstract	The mitigation of climate change is one of the most serious issues in global public governance. To address the climate crisis, Chinese government has proposed a clear target of carbon peaking and carbon neutrality. Regional efforts are expected to play a key role in delivering China’s pledge to peak CO2 emissions before 2030. However, the emission reduction tournament would result in rapid increases in emission transfers among provinces in China. If the current trend of provincial economic development and associated emission transfer mode remains unchanged, we forecast that 24 progressive provinces in China would peak their CO2 emissions before 2030, while 6 lagged provinces would peak later than 2030. However, if emission transfers were not existed, the nationwide carbon peaking time would be one year earlier and the corresponding carbon peaking level would be 13% lower. Furthermore, compared to the situation in 2012, the emission transfer mode in 2017 would lead to a higher carbon peaking level, indicating that the switch to the emission transfer mode from 2012 to 2017 had increased the difficulty of carbon peaking in China. We suggest that the principle of common but differentiated responsibilities should be applied when decomposing the national carbon peaking targets into provinces, and China must avoid a tournament among local governments on carbon peaking.
dc.language	English
dc.publisher	SPRINGER SINGAPORE PTE LTD
dc.relation.ispartof	Chinese Political Science Review
dc.relation.isbasedon	10.1007/s41111-023-00236-w
dc.rights	info:eu-repo/semantics/openAccess
dc.rights	This version of the article has been accepted for publication, after peer review (when applicable) and is subject to Springer Nature’s AM terms of use, but is not the Version of Record and does not reflect post-acceptance improvements, or any corrections. The Version of Record is available online at: https://doi.org/10.1007/s41111-023-00236-w
dc.title	Emission Reduction Tournament Would Postpone Carbon Peaking in China
dc.type	Journal Article
utslib.citation.volume	8
pubs.organisational-group	University of Technology Sydney
pubs.organisational-group	University of Technology Sydney/DVC (International)
pubs.organisational-group	University of Technology Sydney/DVC (International)/Australia-China Relations Institute
utslib.copyright.status	open_access	*
dc.date.updated	2024-03-18T05:51:04Z
pubs.issue	2
pubs.publication-status	Published
pubs.volume	8
utslib.citation.issue	2

Abstract:

The mitigation of climate change is one of the most serious issues in global public governance. To address the climate crisis, Chinese government has proposed a clear target of carbon peaking and carbon neutrality. Regional efforts are expected to play a key role in delivering China’s pledge to peak CO2 emissions before 2030. However, the emission reduction tournament would result in rapid increases in emission transfers among provinces in China. If the current trend of provincial economic development and associated emission transfer mode remains unchanged, we forecast that 24 progressive provinces in China would peak their CO2 emissions before 2030, while 6 lagged provinces would peak later than 2030. However, if emission transfers were not existed, the nationwide carbon peaking time would be one year earlier and the corresponding carbon peaking level would be 13% lower. Furthermore, compared to the situation in 2012, the emission transfer mode in 2017 would lead to a higher carbon peaking level, indicating that the switch to the emission transfer mode from 2012 to 2017 had increased the difficulty of carbon peaking in China. We suggest that the principle of common but differentiated responsibilities should be applied when decomposing the national carbon peaking targets into provinces, and China must avoid a tournament among local governments on carbon peaking.

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http://hdl.handle.net/10453/176860