Large-scale public transport origin-destination matrix estimation via weighted graph and traffic features integration

Publication Type:
Conference Proceeding
Citation:
2023
Issue Date:
2023-01-08
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2023_TRB_Dong_LargePT_OD_Graph_PREPRINT.pdfAccepted version4.25 MB
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Estimation of the large-scale demand estimation for public transport in different cities can vary depending on the public transport network, public transport modes, and traffic data. To overcome the issue of traffic data shortage and effectively estimate the Origin-Destination (OD) matrix, we use the most accessible data: total boarding and alighting and public transport timetable, to capture the public transport dynamic patronage, and from this perspective, we establish a dynamic and microscopic OD matrix for public transport. In this paper, we propose a new method to model the dynamic large-scale stop-by-stop OD demand for public transport by developing a boosting of the gravity model via graph theory and Shannon's entropy. First, we propose a novel cost matrix estimation method that considers various sources of travel cost features extracted from both the traffic flow information in the traffic network and topological information in the graph network. Secondly, we proposed an ``Ensemble Cost Matrix Weighted by Entropy'' method to estimate the best weights of importance for each feature using Shannon's Entropy to maximise the performance of the cost matrix in OD matrix estimation. Third, we validate the proposed approach using real smart-card data. Last, by comparing the effectiveness of our proposed method with the traditional deterrence function-oriented methods, we prove that our proposed cost matrix estimation method cooperated OD matrix modelling method is superior in accurately OD matrix estimation to traditional methods by almost 54.46\% according to RMSE, 84.44\% according to MAPE, and 85.09\% according to MAE.
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