Quantifying energy transition vulnerability helps more just and inclusive decarbonization.

Shen, Y; Shi, X; Zhao, Z; Grafton, RQ; Yu, J; Shan, Y

Quantifying energy transition vulnerability helps more just and inclusive decarbonization.

Shen, Y Shi, X

Zhao, Z Grafton, RQ Yu, J Shan, Y

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Publisher:: OXFORD UNIV PRESS
Publication Type:: Journal Article
Citation:: PNAS Nexus, 2024, 3, (10), pp. pgae427
Issue Date:: 2024-10

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Field	Value	Language
dc.contributor.author	Shen, Y
dc.contributor.author	Shi, X https://orcid.org/0000-0001-9653-7395
dc.contributor.author	Zhao, Z
dc.contributor.author	Grafton, RQ
dc.contributor.author	Yu, J
dc.contributor.author	Shan, Y
dc.contributor.editor	Liu, J
dc.date.accessioned	2024-12-02T01:09:49Z
dc.date.available	2024-09-09
dc.date.available	2024-12-02T01:09:49Z
dc.date.issued	2024-10
dc.identifier.citation	PNAS Nexus, 2024, 3, (10), pp. pgae427
dc.identifier.issn	2752-6542
dc.identifier.issn	2752-6542
dc.identifier.uri	http://hdl.handle.net/10453/182212
dc.description.abstract	The COP28 agreement signals "beginning of the end" of the fossil fuel era, calling on countries to contribute to global efforts to transition away from fossil fuels in energy systems in a just, orderly and equitable manner. While a quantitative assessment of country's vulnerability in energy transition is a prerequisite for national and international policy makers to ensure a just and inclusive transition, it is notably absent in the existing research. Here, we develop a conceptual framework based on the vulnerability scoping diagram (VSD) method to assess differences in energy transition vulnerability across countries, with a specific focus on the challenges associated with transitioning away from fossil fuels. The resulting energy transition vulnerability index (ETVI) scores reveal that countries in the Global South generally exhibit higher vulnerability in their energy transition compared to those in the Global North, and this gap has widened over the past decade. Moreover, the COVID-19 pandemic has disrupted the decade-long trend of continuous decline in global energy transition vulnerability. This study also provides two important applications of ETVI scores, aligning them with major global sustainable development agenda. Firstly, we identify substantial differences in the dynamics of transition vulnerability across seven major party groups in the international climate change negotiations and distinguish four energy transition statuses in relation to achieving global climate goals: Stressful, Leapfrog, Potential Challenges, and Less Painful. Secondly, we demonstrate crucial synergies between energy transition resilience and the 2030 United Nations Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs).
dc.format	Electronic-eCollection
dc.language	eng
dc.publisher	OXFORD UNIV PRESS
dc.relation.ispartof	PNAS Nexus
dc.relation.isbasedon	10.1093/pnasnexus/pgae427
dc.rights	info:eu-repo/semantics/openAccess
dc.title	Quantifying energy transition vulnerability helps more just and inclusive decarbonization.
dc.type	Journal Article
utslib.citation.volume	3
utslib.location.activity	England
pubs.organisational-group	University of Technology Sydney
pubs.organisational-group	University of Technology Sydney/DVC (International)
pubs.organisational-group	University of Technology Sydney/DVC (International)/Australia-China Relations Institute
utslib.copyright.status	open_access	*
dc.rights.license	This work is licensed under a Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 International License (CC BY 4.0). To view a copy of this license, visit https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/
dc.date.updated	2024-12-02T01:09:46Z
pubs.issue	10
pubs.publication-status	Published online
pubs.volume	3
utslib.citation.issue	10

Abstract:

The COP28 agreement signals "beginning of the end" of the fossil fuel era, calling on countries to contribute to global efforts to transition away from fossil fuels in energy systems in a just, orderly and equitable manner. While a quantitative assessment of country's vulnerability in energy transition is a prerequisite for national and international policy makers to ensure a just and inclusive transition, it is notably absent in the existing research. Here, we develop a conceptual framework based on the vulnerability scoping diagram (VSD) method to assess differences in energy transition vulnerability across countries, with a specific focus on the challenges associated with transitioning away from fossil fuels. The resulting energy transition vulnerability index (ETVI) scores reveal that countries in the Global South generally exhibit higher vulnerability in their energy transition compared to those in the Global North, and this gap has widened over the past decade. Moreover, the COVID-19 pandemic has disrupted the decade-long trend of continuous decline in global energy transition vulnerability. This study also provides two important applications of ETVI scores, aligning them with major global sustainable development agenda. Firstly, we identify substantial differences in the dynamics of transition vulnerability across seven major party groups in the international climate change negotiations and distinguish four energy transition statuses in relation to achieving global climate goals: Stressful, Leapfrog, Potential Challenges, and Less Painful. Secondly, we demonstrate crucial synergies between energy transition resilience and the 2030 United Nations Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs).

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http://hdl.handle.net/10453/182212