Resilience of mangroves to climate and land-use changes in the Pacific Islands

Jorquera, E; Rodríguez, JF; Saco, PM; Sandi, S; Quijano-Baron, J; Breda, A

Resilience of mangroves to climate and land-use changes in the Pacific Islands

Jorquera, E Rodríguez, JF Saco, PM Sandi, S Quijano-Baron, J Breda, A

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Publisher:: Elsevier
Publication Type:: Journal Article
Citation:: Catena, 2025, 261, pp. 109559
Issue Date:: 2025-12-31

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Field	Value	Language
dc.contributor.author	Jorquera, E
dc.contributor.author	Rodríguez, JF
dc.contributor.author	Saco, PM
dc.contributor.author	Sandi, S
dc.contributor.author	Quijano-Baron, J
dc.contributor.author	Breda, A
dc.date.accessioned	2026-04-24T05:13:11Z
dc.date.available	2026-04-24T05:13:11Z
dc.date.issued	2025-12-31
dc.identifier.citation	Catena, 2025, 261, pp. 109559
dc.identifier.issn	0341-8162
dc.identifier.uri	http://hdl.handle.net/10453/194805
dc.description.abstract	Mangrove wetlands in Pacific Islands are vital ecosystems that provide important services such as habitat for marine species, flood protection and carbon storage. They occupy low-lying areas that are at risk of sea level rise (SLR), which, combined with anthropogenic pressures exerted on adjacent zones can lead to destabilising effects on these ecosystems. Their resilience to climate and land use changes is closely related to sediment availability, as mangroves can vertically adjust their soil surface (accretion) by trapping sediment and building root mass, offsetting SLR. In this contribution, an ecogeomorphological model is applied to a mangrove wetland site in Vanua Levu Island, Fiji, to predict its evolution over the next 100 years and to assess its resilience under five different scenarios of climate and land use change. Scenarios consider the SSP5-8.5 pathway SLR and include a scenario with current conditions, two scenarios with different levels of deforestation in the catchment, one scenario with increases in temperature and rainfall intensity, and a scenario with conservation practices to reduce sediment from the catchment. Changes in the catchment are assessed using a hydro-sedimentological model previously calibrated, and produce increases in sediment supply to the wetland for all scenarios except the conservation scenario. Changes in sediment supply are incorporated into the ecogeomorphological model, which is able to quantify improvements in the resilience of the wetland due to increases in sediment. Improvements in resilience are not enough to prevent substantial wetland losses (30 % to 60 %) because mangroves cannot colonise new areas due to topographic constraints and a manmade embankment that prevents tidal incursion. The methodology uses numerical models that are set up and verified with regional information and remote sensing derived data, so it has enormous potential for the assessment of wetland vulnerability in other mangrove wetlands of the world with limited ground information.
dc.language	en
dc.publisher	Elsevier
dc.relation.ispartof	Catena
dc.relation.isbasedon	10.1016/j.catena.2025.109559
dc.rights	info:eu-repo/semantics/openAccess
dc.subject	0403 Geology, 0406 Physical Geography and Environmental Geoscience, 0503 Soil Sciences
dc.subject.classification	Geochemistry & Geophysics
dc.subject.classification	3707 Hydrology
dc.subject.classification	3709 Physical geography and environmental geoscience
dc.subject.classification	4106 Soil sciences
dc.title	Resilience of mangroves to climate and land-use changes in the Pacific Islands
dc.type	Journal Article
utslib.citation.volume	261
utslib.for	0403 Geology
utslib.for	0406 Physical Geography and Environmental Geoscience
utslib.for	0503 Soil Sciences
pubs.organisational-group	University of Technology Sydney
pubs.organisational-group	University of Technology Sydney/Faculty of Engineering and Information Technology
pubs.organisational-group	University of Technology Sydney/Faculty of Engineering and Information Technology/School of Civil and Environmental Engineering
utslib.copyright.status	open_access	*
dc.rights.license	This work is licensed under a Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 International License (CC BY 4.0). To view a copy of this license, visit https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/
dc.date.updated	2026-04-24T05:13:09Z
pubs.publication-status	Published
pubs.volume	261

Abstract:

Mangrove wetlands in Pacific Islands are vital ecosystems that provide important services such as habitat for marine species, flood protection and carbon storage. They occupy low-lying areas that are at risk of sea level rise (SLR), which, combined with anthropogenic pressures exerted on adjacent zones can lead to destabilising effects on these ecosystems. Their resilience to climate and land use changes is closely related to sediment availability, as mangroves can vertically adjust their soil surface (accretion) by trapping sediment and building root mass, offsetting SLR. In this contribution, an ecogeomorphological model is applied to a mangrove wetland site in Vanua Levu Island, Fiji, to predict its evolution over the next 100 years and to assess its resilience under five different scenarios of climate and land use change. Scenarios consider the SSP5-8.5 pathway SLR and include a scenario with current conditions, two scenarios with different levels of deforestation in the catchment, one scenario with increases in temperature and rainfall intensity, and a scenario with conservation practices to reduce sediment from the catchment. Changes in the catchment are assessed using a hydro-sedimentological model previously calibrated, and produce increases in sediment supply to the wetland for all scenarios except the conservation scenario. Changes in sediment supply are incorporated into the ecogeomorphological model, which is able to quantify improvements in the resilience of the wetland due to increases in sediment. Improvements in resilience are not enough to prevent substantial wetland losses (30 % to 60 %) because mangroves cannot colonise new areas due to topographic constraints and a manmade embankment that prevents tidal incursion. The methodology uses numerical models that are set up and verified with regional information and remote sensing derived data, so it has enormous potential for the assessment of wetland vulnerability in other mangrove wetlands of the world with limited ground information.

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