The good, the bad and the ugly: Scenarios of Sino-US competition and their implications for Australian defense policy

Clarke, M

The good, the bad and the ugly: Scenarios of Sino-US competition and their implications for Australian defense policy

Clarke, M

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Publisher:: Taylor & Francis
Publication Type:: Journal Article
Citation:: Comparative Strategy, 2026, pp. 1-29
Issue Date:: 2026-01-01

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Field	Value	Language
dc.contributor.author	Clarke, M https://orcid.org/0000-0003-1048-9586
dc.date.accessioned	2026-10-09T02:10:24Z
dc.date.available	2026-10-09T02:10:24Z
dc.date.issued	2026-01-01
dc.identifier.citation	Comparative Strategy, 2026, pp. 1-29
dc.identifier.issn	0149-5933
dc.identifier.issn	1521-0448
dc.identifier.uri	http://hdl.handle.net/10453/196704
dc.description.abstract	This paper explores three scenarios for the future evolution of Sino-US ‘strategic competition’ and examines how these trajectories may affect the defense strategy adopted by Australia. It identifies three scenarios for Sino-US relations: the normalization of ‘strategic competition’; the retrenchment of the United States under the second Trump presidency coupled with Chinese resilience under Xi Jinping; and the simultaneous retrenchment of the United States and the stagnation and/or retrenchment of Chinese power. It argues that the first of these scenarios, while presenting significant risks, provides Australia with greater prospects of achieving its core security objectives than the latter two scenarios which confront Australia with the prospect of having its strategic dependency on the United States leveraged by a transactional White House or its economic prosperity undercut by a stagnating China.
dc.language	en
dc.publisher	Taylor & Francis
dc.relation.ispartof	Comparative Strategy
dc.relation.isbasedon	10.1080/01495933.2026.2654190
dc.rights	info:eu-repo/semantics/openAccess
dc.subject	1606 Political Science
dc.subject.classification	4408 Political science
dc.title	The good, the bad and the ugly: Scenarios of Sino-US competition and their implications for Australian defense policy
dc.type	Journal Article
utslib.for	1606 Political Science
pubs.organisational-group	University of Technology Sydney
pubs.organisational-group	University of Technology Sydney/DVC (International)
pubs.organisational-group	University of Technology Sydney/DVC (International)/Australia-China Relations Institute
utslib.copyright.status	open_access	*
dc.rights.license	This work is licensed under a Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 International License (CC BY 4.0). To view a copy of this license, visit https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/
dc.date.updated	2026-10-09T02:10:24Z
pubs.publication-status	Published

Abstract:

This paper explores three scenarios for the future evolution of Sino-US ‘strategic competition’ and examines how these trajectories may affect the defense strategy adopted by Australia. It identifies three scenarios for Sino-US relations: the normalization of ‘strategic competition’; the retrenchment of the United States under the second Trump presidency coupled with Chinese resilience under Xi Jinping; and the simultaneous retrenchment of the United States and the stagnation and/or retrenchment of Chinese power. It argues that the first of these scenarios, while presenting significant risks, provides Australia with greater prospects of achieving its core security objectives than the latter two scenarios which confront Australia with the prospect of having its strategic dependency on the United States leveraged by a transactional White House or its economic prosperity undercut by a stagnating China.

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http://hdl.handle.net/10453/196704