Ensemble Hydro-meteorological Forecast for the Nattai Catchment

Publisher:
TuTech Verlag - TuTech Innovation GmbH
Publication Type:
Conference Proceeding
Citation:
Proceedings of the 10th International Conference on Hydroinformatics "Understanding Changing Climate and Environment and Finding Solutions", 2012, pp. 1 - 7
Issue Date:
2012-01
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Australia is one of the driest inhabited continents on earth with extremely variable climate conditions, characterised with high intensity short duration rainfall events or long lasting droughts. These dynamic climate conditions introduce a challenge to develop an accurate and reliable forecasting system. To enable effective operational decisions under those conditions an integrated hydro-meteorological forecasting system has been developed. This integrated forecasting system utilises the Short Term Ensemble Prediction System (STEPS) for rainfall forecasts along with the spatially distributed physically based hydrological model Mike SHE to capture these spatial rainfall variations. The STEPS rainfall forecasting scheme merges an extrapolation radar rainfall forecast with a high resolution Numerical Weather Prediction (NWP) to predict the rainfall field over the catchment. The Mike SHE catchment model is used then to forecast river discharge at the catchment outlet. Presented in this paper is the integration of the STEPS meteorological forecast with the catchment model Mike SHE and its application to the Nattai Catchment embedded in the Mike FloodWatch real-time forecasting shell.
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