End-use forecasting in the context of building adaptive water services

Publisher:
E.W. Publications
Publication Type:
Journal Article
Citation:
Water Utility Journal, 2013, 6 (1), pp. 29 - 39
Issue Date:
2013-01
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Water resource managers are faced with planning for an uncertain future constrained by limited knowledge of how demands will change in future and what supplies will be available to match them. By adopting an adaptive management approach, flexible and robust responses can be developed as new information comes to hand. A transparent approach has been developed that avoids complicated probabilistic approaches and encourages planners to consider investment policies to accommodate a range of potential scenarios. Integrated resource planning (IRP) principles are key to this approach and requires that both supply and demand side options are considered. Whilst much focus has been on the supply side, end user interventions have received less attention as a longer term approach. Restrictions have to date been the fall back option to deal with impending droughts, but this is not likely to be acceptable under reduced trending supplies. By focusing on end-use planning, savings through suppressed customer demand can free up further water thereby delaying the introduction of large expensive supply options. By disaggregating the end uses by residential customers into for example, showers, toilets, baths, washing machines, outdoor use, etc., a richer understanding of where residential water actually gets used and therefore where the potential for demand reduction lie. This paper firstly presents a framework for adaptive planning for urban water supplies and secondly, introduces the notion of end-use modelling and planning as a means to reduce consumption. Real examples from work conducted in Australia will be used to illustrate these approaches.
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