Timing of repeat BMD measurements: development of an absolute risk-based prognostic model

Frost, SA; Nguyen, ND; Center, JR; Eisman, JA; Nguyen, TV

Timing of repeat BMD measurements: development of an absolute risk-based prognostic model

Frost, SA Nguyen, ND Center, JR Eisman, JA Nguyen, TV

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Publication Type:: Journal Article
Citation:: Journal of Bone and Mineral Research, 2009, 24 (11), pp. 1800 - 1807
Issue Date:: 2009-11-01

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Field	Value	Language
dc.contributor.author	Frost, SA	en_US
dc.contributor.author	Nguyen, ND	en_US
dc.contributor.author	Center, JR	en_US
dc.contributor.author	Eisman, JA	en_US
dc.contributor.author	Nguyen, TV https://orcid.org/0000-0002-3246-6281	en_US
dc.date.issued	2009-11-01	en_US
dc.identifier.citation	Journal of Bone and Mineral Research, 2009, 24 (11), pp. 1800 - 1807	en_US
dc.identifier.issn	0884-0431	en_US
dc.identifier.uri	http://hdl.handle.net/10453/28791
dc.description.abstract	This study attempted to address the following questions: for an individual who is at present nonosteoporotic, given their current age and BMD level, what is the individual's risk of fracture and when is the ideal time to repeat a BMD measurement? Nonosteoporotic women (n = 1008) and men (n = 750) over the age of 60 in 1989 from the Dubbo Osteoporosis Epidemiology Study were monitored until one of the following outcomes occurred: (1) BMD reached "osteoporosis" level (i.e., T-scores≤ -2.5) or (2) an incident fragility fracture. During the follow-up period (average, 7 yr), 346 women (34%) and 160 men (21%) developed osteoporosis or sustained a low-trauma fracture. The risk of osteoporosis or fracture increased with advancing age (women: RR/10 yr, 1.3; 95% CI, 1.1-1.6; men: RR/10 yr, 2.3; 95% CI, 1.7-2.9) and lower BMD levels (women: RR per -0.12 g/cm2, 3.2; 95% CI, 2.6-4.1; RR per -0.12 g/cm 2, 2.6; 95% CI, 2.0-3.3). Using the predicted risk (of osteoporosis or fracture) of 10% as a cut-off level for repeating BMD measurement, the estimated time to reach the cut-off level varied from 1.5 (for an 80-yr-old woman with a T-score of -2.2) to 10.6 yr (for a 60-yr-old man with a T-score of 0). These results suggest that, based on an individual's current age and BMD T-score, it is possible to estimate the optimal time to repeat BMD testing for the individual. The prognostic model and approach presented in this study may help improve the individualization and management of osteoporosis. © 2009 American Society for Bone and Mineral Research.	en_US
dc.relation.ispartof	Journal of Bone and Mineral Research	en_US
dc.relation.isbasedon	10.1359/jbmr.090514	en_US
dc.subject.classification	Anatomy & Morphology	en_US
dc.subject.mesh	Humans	en_US
dc.subject.mesh	Osteoporosis	en_US
dc.subject.mesh	Prognosis	en_US
dc.subject.mesh	Risk Factors	en_US
dc.subject.mesh	Bone Density	en_US
dc.subject.mesh	Models, Biological	en_US
dc.subject.mesh	Time Factors	en_US
dc.subject.mesh	Aged	en_US
dc.subject.mesh	Aged, 80 and over	en_US
dc.subject.mesh	Middle Aged	en_US
dc.subject.mesh	Female	en_US
dc.subject.mesh	Male	en_US
dc.subject.mesh	Fractures, Bone	en_US
dc.title	Timing of repeat BMD measurements: development of an absolute risk-based prognostic model	en_US
dc.type	Journal Article
utslib.citation.volume	11	en_US
utslib.citation.volume	24	en_US
utslib.for	110306 Endocrinology	en_US
utslib.for	06 Biological Sciences	en_US
utslib.for	09 Engineering	en_US
utslib.for	11 Medical and Health Sciences	en_US
pubs.embargo.period	Not known	en_US
pubs.organisational-group	/University of Technology Sydney
pubs.organisational-group	/University of Technology Sydney/Faculty of Engineering and Information Technology
pubs.organisational-group	/University of Technology Sydney/Faculty of Engineering and Information Technology/School of Biomedical Engineering
pubs.organisational-group	/University of Technology Sydney/Strength - CHT - Health Technologies
utslib.copyright.status	closed_access
pubs.issue	11	en_US
pubs.publication-status	Published	en_US
pubs.volume	24	en_US

Abstract:

This study attempted to address the following questions: for an individual who is at present nonosteoporotic, given their current age and BMD level, what is the individual's risk of fracture and when is the ideal time to repeat a BMD measurement? Nonosteoporotic women (n = 1008) and men (n = 750) over the age of 60 in 1989 from the Dubbo Osteoporosis Epidemiology Study were monitored until one of the following outcomes occurred: (1) BMD reached "osteoporosis" level (i.e., T-scores≤ -2.5) or (2) an incident fragility fracture. During the follow-up period (average, 7 yr), 346 women (34%) and 160 men (21%) developed osteoporosis or sustained a low-trauma fracture. The risk of osteoporosis or fracture increased with advancing age (women: RR/10 yr, 1.3; 95% CI, 1.1-1.6; men: RR/10 yr, 2.3; 95% CI, 1.7-2.9) and lower BMD levels (women: RR per -0.12 g/cm2, 3.2; 95% CI, 2.6-4.1; RR per -0.12 g/cm 2, 2.6; 95% CI, 2.0-3.3). Using the predicted risk (of osteoporosis or fracture) of 10% as a cut-off level for repeating BMD measurement, the estimated time to reach the cut-off level varied from 1.5 (for an 80-yr-old woman with a T-score of -2.2) to 10.6 yr (for a 60-yr-old man with a T-score of 0). These results suggest that, based on an individual's current age and BMD T-score, it is possible to estimate the optimal time to repeat BMD testing for the individual. The prognostic model and approach presented in this study may help improve the individualization and management of osteoporosis. © 2009 American Society for Bone and Mineral Research.

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http://hdl.handle.net/10453/28791