Coupled behavior analysis for capturing coupling relationships in group-based market manipulations

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Conference Proceeding
Proceedings of the ACM SIGKDD International Conference on Knowledge Discovery and Data Mining, 2012, pp. 976 - 984
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In stock markets, an emerging challenge for surveillance is that a group of hidden manipulators collaborate with each other to manipulate the price movement of securities. Recently, the coupled hidden Markov model (CHMM)-based coupled behavior analysis (CBA) has been proposed to consider the coupling relationships in the above group-based behaviors for manipulation detection. From the modeling perspective, however, this requires overall aggregation of the behavioral data to cater for the CHMM modeling, which does not differentiate the coupling relationships presented in different forms within the aggregated behaviors and degrade the capability for further anomaly detection. Thus, this paper suggests a general CBA framework for detecting group-based market manipulation by capturing more comprehensive couplings and proposes two variant implementations, which are hybrid coupling (HC)-based and hierarchical grouping (HG)-based respectively. The proposed framework consists of three stages. The first stage, qualitative analysis, generates possible qualitative coupling relationships between behaviors with or without domain knowledge. In the second stage, quantitative representation of coupled behaviors is learned via proper methods. For the third stage, anomaly detection algorithms are proposed to cater for different application scenarios. Experimental results on data from a major Asian stock market show that the proposed framework outperforms the CHMM-based analysis in terms of detecting abnormal collaborative market manipulations. Additionally, the two different implementations are compared with their effectiveness for different application scenarios. © 2012 ACM.
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