Peak phosphorus: Clarifying the key issues of a vigorous debate about long-term phosphorus security

Cordell, D; White, S

Peak phosphorus: Clarifying the key issues of a vigorous debate about long-term phosphorus security

Cordell, D

White, S

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Publication Type:: Journal Article
Citation:: Sustainability, 2011, 3 (10), pp. 2027 - 2049
Issue Date:: 2011-12-01

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Field	Value	Language
dc.contributor.author	Cordell, D https://orcid.org/0000-0001-5138-1569	en_US
dc.contributor.author	White, S https://orcid.org/0000-0001-8078-5327	en_US
dc.date.issued	2011-12-01	en_US
dc.identifier.citation	Sustainability, 2011, 3 (10), pp. 2027 - 2049	en_US
dc.identifier.issn	2071-1050	en_US
dc.identifier.uri	http://hdl.handle.net/10453/31261
dc.description.abstract	This paper reviews the latest information and perspectives on global phosphorus scarcity. Phosphorus is essential for food production and modern agriculture currently sources phosphorus fertilizers from finite phosphate rock. The 2008 food and phosphate fertilizer price spikes triggered increased concerns regarding the depletion timeline of phosphate rock reserves. While estimates range from 30 to 300 years and are shrouded by lack of publicly available data and substantial uncertainty, there is a general consensus that the quality and accessibility of remaining reserves are decreasing and costs will increase. This paper clarifies common sources of misunderstandings about phosphorus scarcity and identifies areas of consensus. It then asks, despite some persistent uncertainty, what would it take to achieve global phosphorus security? What would a 'hard-landing' response look like and how could preferred 'soft-landing' responses be achieved?© 2011 by the authors.	en_US
dc.relation.ispartof	Sustainability	en_US
dc.relation.isbasedon	10.3390/su3102027	en_US
dc.title	Peak phosphorus: Clarifying the key issues of a vigorous debate about long-term phosphorus security	en_US
dc.type	Journal Article
utslib.citation.volume	10	en_US
utslib.citation.volume	3	en_US
utslib.for	1205 Urban and Regional Planning	en_US
utslib.for	12 Built Environment and Design	en_US
pubs.embargo.period	Not known	en_US
pubs.organisational-group	/University of Technology Sydney
pubs.organisational-group	/University of Technology Sydney/DVC (Research)
pubs.organisational-group	/University of Technology Sydney/DVC (Research)/Institute For Sustainable Futures
pubs.organisational-group	/University of Technology Sydney/Strength - ISF - Institute for Sustainable Futures
utslib.copyright.status	open_access
pubs.issue	10	en_US
pubs.publication-status	Published	en_US
pubs.volume	3	en_US

Abstract:

This paper reviews the latest information and perspectives on global phosphorus scarcity. Phosphorus is essential for food production and modern agriculture currently sources phosphorus fertilizers from finite phosphate rock. The 2008 food and phosphate fertilizer price spikes triggered increased concerns regarding the depletion timeline of phosphate rock reserves. While estimates range from 30 to 300 years and are shrouded by lack of publicly available data and substantial uncertainty, there is a general consensus that the quality and accessibility of remaining reserves are decreasing and costs will increase. This paper clarifies common sources of misunderstandings about phosphorus scarcity and identifies areas of consensus. It then asks, despite some persistent uncertainty, what would it take to achieve global phosphorus security? What would a 'hard-landing' response look like and how could preferred 'soft-landing' responses be achieved?© 2011 by the authors.

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http://hdl.handle.net/10453/31261