Decision-making under future uncertainty: Developing adaptive urban water strategies

Mukheibir, P; Mitchell, C

Decision-making under future uncertainty: Developing adaptive urban water strategies

Mukheibir, P

Mitchell, C

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Publication Type:: Journal Article
Citation:: International Journal of Water, 2014, 8 (4), pp. 435 - 447
Issue Date:: 2014-01-01

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Field	Value	Language
dc.contributor.author	Mukheibir, P https://orcid.org/0000-0001-7876-1705	en_US
dc.contributor.author	Mitchell, C https://orcid.org/0000-0001-9842-540X	en_US
dc.date.issued	2014-01-01	en_US
dc.identifier.citation	International Journal of Water, 2014, 8 (4), pp. 435 - 447	en_US
dc.identifier.issn	1465-6620	en_US
dc.identifier.uri	http://hdl.handle.net/10453/33527
dc.description.abstract	Copyright © 2014 Inderscience Enterprises Ltd. This paper describes a decision-making framework created to develop long term adaptive water supply and demand strategies to respond to future contextual uncertainties, such as climate change and urbanisation. Whilst there are various theoretical methods for decision making under uncertainty, they generally have not been applied to the water sector. Nor have they been brought together in an integrated, practically-grounded process to guide strategic planning and project level decisions, such as the approach proposed in this paper. This approach avoids predictions of the future or modelling intensive analysis, rather it integrates the fundamental characteristics of uncertain system influences (trends and shocks) with two additional thinking tools: The use of scenarios based on a number of uncertainties to describe potential futures, and the focus on investment approaches to guide the packaging of potential response measures.	en_US
dc.relation.ispartof	International Journal of Water	en_US
dc.relation.isbasedon	10.1504/IJW.2014.065797	en_US
dc.subject.classification	Environmental Engineering	en_US
dc.title	Decision-making under future uncertainty: Developing adaptive urban water strategies	en_US
dc.type	Journal Article
utslib.citation.volume	4	en_US
utslib.citation.volume	8	en_US
utslib.for	120504 Land Use and Environmental Planning	en_US
utslib.for	0904 Chemical Engineering	en_US
utslib.for	0911 Maritime Engineering	en_US
pubs.embargo.period	Not known	en_US
pubs.organisational-group	/University of Technology Sydney
pubs.organisational-group	/University of Technology Sydney/DVC (Research)
pubs.organisational-group	/University of Technology Sydney/DVC (Research)/Institute For Sustainable Futures
pubs.organisational-group	/University of Technology Sydney/Strength - ISF - Institute for Sustainable Futures
utslib.copyright.status	open_access
pubs.issue	4	en_US
pubs.publication-status	Published	en_US
pubs.volume	8	en_US

Abstract:

Copyright © 2014 Inderscience Enterprises Ltd. This paper describes a decision-making framework created to develop long term adaptive water supply and demand strategies to respond to future contextual uncertainties, such as climate change and urbanisation. Whilst there are various theoretical methods for decision making under uncertainty, they generally have not been applied to the water sector. Nor have they been brought together in an integrated, practically-grounded process to guide strategic planning and project level decisions, such as the approach proposed in this paper. This approach avoids predictions of the future or modelling intensive analysis, rather it integrates the fundamental characteristics of uncertain system influences (trends and shocks) with two additional thinking tools: The use of scenarios based on a number of uncertainties to describe potential futures, and the focus on investment approaches to guide the packaging of potential response measures.

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http://hdl.handle.net/10453/33527