Projection of Iron Ore Production

Mohr, S; Giurco, D; Yellishetty, M; Ward, J; Mudd, G

Projection of Iron Ore Production

Mohr, S Giurco, D

Yellishetty, M Ward, J Mudd, G

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Publication Type:: Journal Article
Citation:: Natural Resources Research, 2015, 24 (3), pp. 317 - 327
Issue Date:: 2015-09-01

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Field	Value	Language
dc.contributor.author	Mohr, S	en_US
dc.contributor.author	Giurco, D https://orcid.org/0000-0002-1707-9531	en_US
dc.contributor.author	Yellishetty, M	en_US
dc.contributor.author	Ward, J	en_US
dc.contributor.author	Mudd, G	en_US
dc.date.issued	2015-09-01	en_US
dc.identifier.citation	Natural Resources Research, 2015, 24 (3), pp. 317 - 327	en_US
dc.identifier.issn	1520-7439	en_US
dc.identifier.uri	http://hdl.handle.net/10453/41016
dc.description.abstract	© 2014, International Association for Mathematical Geosciences. A comprehensive country-by-country projection of world iron ore production is presented along with alternative scenarios and a sensitivity analysis. The supply-driven modelling approach follows Mohr (Projection of world fossil fuel production with supply and demand interactions, PhD Thesis, http://www.theoildrum.com/node/6782, 2010) using an ultimately recoverable resource of 346 Gt of iron ore. Production is estimated to have a choppy plateau starting in 2017 until 2050 after which production rapidly declines. The undulating plateau is due to Chinese iron ore production peaking earlier followed by Australia and Brazil in turn. Alternative scenarios indicate that the model is sensitive to increases in Australian and Brazilian resources, and that African iron ore production can shift the peak date only if the African Ultimately Recoverable Resources (URR) is 5 times larger than the estimate used. Changes to the demand for iron ore driven by substitution or recycling are not modelled. The relatively near-term peak in iron ore supply is likely to create a global challenge to manufacturing and construction and ultimately the world economy.	en_US
dc.relation.ispartof	Natural Resources Research	en_US
dc.relation.isbasedon	10.1007/s11053-014-9256-6	en_US
dc.subject.classification	Geochemistry & Geophysics	en_US
dc.title	Projection of Iron Ore Production	en_US
dc.type	Journal Article
utslib.citation.volume	3	en_US
utslib.citation.volume	24	en_US
utslib.for	0502 Environmental Science and Management	en_US
utslib.for	0914 Resources Engineering and Extractive Metallurgy	en_US
pubs.embargo.period	Not known	en_US
pubs.organisational-group	/University of Technology Sydney
pubs.organisational-group	/University of Technology Sydney/DVC (Research)
pubs.organisational-group	/University of Technology Sydney/DVC (Research)/Institute For Sustainable Futures
pubs.organisational-group	/University of Technology Sydney/Strength - ISF - Institute for Sustainable Futures
utslib.copyright.status	closed_access
pubs.issue	3	en_US
pubs.publication-status	Published	en_US
pubs.volume	24	en_US

Abstract:

© 2014, International Association for Mathematical Geosciences. A comprehensive country-by-country projection of world iron ore production is presented along with alternative scenarios and a sensitivity analysis. The supply-driven modelling approach follows Mohr (Projection of world fossil fuel production with supply and demand interactions, PhD Thesis, http://www.theoildrum.com/node/6782, 2010) using an ultimately recoverable resource of 346 Gt of iron ore. Production is estimated to have a choppy plateau starting in 2017 until 2050 after which production rapidly declines. The undulating plateau is due to Chinese iron ore production peaking earlier followed by Australia and Brazil in turn. Alternative scenarios indicate that the model is sensitive to increases in Australian and Brazilian resources, and that African iron ore production can shift the peak date only if the African Ultimately Recoverable Resources (URR) is 5 times larger than the estimate used. Changes to the demand for iron ore driven by substitution or recycling are not modelled. The relatively near-term peak in iron ore supply is likely to create a global challenge to manufacturing and construction and ultimately the world economy.

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http://hdl.handle.net/10453/41016