The relationship between atmospheric lead emissions and aggressive crime: An ecological study

Taylor, MP; Forbes, MK; Opeskin, B; Parr, N; Lanphear, BP

The relationship between atmospheric lead emissions and aggressive crime: An ecological study

Taylor, MP Forbes, MK Opeskin, B

Parr, N Lanphear, BP

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Publication Type:: Journal Article
Citation:: Environmental Health: A Global Access Science Source, 2016, 15 (1)
Issue Date:: 2016-02-16

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Field	Value	Language
dc.contributor.author	Taylor, MP	en_US
dc.contributor.author	Forbes, MK	en_US
dc.contributor.author	Opeskin, B https://orcid.org/0000-0002-9393-3592	en_US
dc.contributor.author	Parr, N	en_US
dc.contributor.author	Lanphear, BP	en_US
dc.date.available	2016-02-08	en_US
dc.date.issued	2016-02-16	en_US
dc.identifier.citation	Environmental Health: A Global Access Science Source, 2016, 15 (1)	en_US
dc.identifier.uri	http://hdl.handle.net/10453/52810
dc.description.abstract	© 2016 Taylor et al. Background: Many populations have been exposed to environmental lead from paint, petrol, and mining and smelting operations. Lead is toxic to humans and there is emerging evidence linking childhood exposure with later life antisocial behaviors, including delinquency and crime. This study tested the hypothesis that childhood lead exposure in select Australian populations is related to subsequent aggressive criminal behaviors. Methods: We conducted regression analyses at suburb, state and national levels using multiple analytic methods and data sources. At the suburb-level, we examined assault rates as a function of air lead concentrations 15-24 years earlier, reflecting the ubiquitous age-related peak in criminal activity. Mixed model analyses were conducted with and without socio-demographic covariates. The incidence of fraud was compared for discriminant validity. State and national analyses were conducted for convergent validity, utilizing deaths by assault as a function of petrol lead emissions. Results: Suburb-level mixed model analyses showed air lead concentrations accounted for 29.8 % of the variance in assault rates 21 years later, after adjusting for socio-demographic covariates. State level analyses produced comparable results. Lead petrol emissions in the two most populous states accounted for 34.6 and 32.6 % of the variance in death by assault rates 18 years later. Conclusions: The strong positive relationship between childhood lead exposure and subsequent rates of aggressive crime has important implications for public health globally. Measures need to be taken to ameliorate exposure to lead and other environmental contaminants with known neurodevelopmental consequences.	en_US
dc.relation.ispartof	Environmental Health: A Global Access Science Source	en_US
dc.relation.isbasedon	10.1186/s12940-016-0122-3	en_US
dc.subject.classification	Toxicology	en_US
dc.subject.mesh	Humans	en_US
dc.subject.mesh	Lead	en_US
dc.subject.mesh	Air Pollutants	en_US
dc.subject.mesh	Environmental Exposure	en_US
dc.subject.mesh	Violence	en_US
dc.subject.mesh	Child	en_US
dc.subject.mesh	Australia	en_US
dc.title	The relationship between atmospheric lead emissions and aggressive crime: An ecological study	en_US
dc.type	Journal Article
utslib.citation.volume	1	en_US
utslib.citation.volume	15	en_US
utslib.for	111705 Environmental and Occupational Health and Safety	en_US
utslib.for	1117 Public Health and Health Services	en_US
pubs.embargo.period	Not known	en_US
pubs.organisational-group	/University of Technology Sydney
pubs.organisational-group	/University of Technology Sydney/Faculty of Law
utslib.copyright.status	open_access
pubs.issue	1	en_US
pubs.publication-status	Published	en_US
pubs.volume	15	en_US

Abstract:

© 2016 Taylor et al. Background: Many populations have been exposed to environmental lead from paint, petrol, and mining and smelting operations. Lead is toxic to humans and there is emerging evidence linking childhood exposure with later life antisocial behaviors, including delinquency and crime. This study tested the hypothesis that childhood lead exposure in select Australian populations is related to subsequent aggressive criminal behaviors. Methods: We conducted regression analyses at suburb, state and national levels using multiple analytic methods and data sources. At the suburb-level, we examined assault rates as a function of air lead concentrations 15-24 years earlier, reflecting the ubiquitous age-related peak in criminal activity. Mixed model analyses were conducted with and without socio-demographic covariates. The incidence of fraud was compared for discriminant validity. State and national analyses were conducted for convergent validity, utilizing deaths by assault as a function of petrol lead emissions. Results: Suburb-level mixed model analyses showed air lead concentrations accounted for 29.8 % of the variance in assault rates 21 years later, after adjusting for socio-demographic covariates. State level analyses produced comparable results. Lead petrol emissions in the two most populous states accounted for 34.6 and 32.6 % of the variance in death by assault rates 18 years later. Conclusions: The strong positive relationship between childhood lead exposure and subsequent rates of aggressive crime has important implications for public health globally. Measures need to be taken to ameliorate exposure to lead and other environmental contaminants with known neurodevelopmental consequences.

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http://hdl.handle.net/10453/52810