Integrated top-down and bottom-up model for energy and CO2 emissions analysis from Thailand’s long-term low carbon energy efficiency and renewable energy plan

Wongsapai, W; Ritkrerkkrai, C; Pongthanaisawan, J; Sandu, S

Integrated top-down and bottom-up model for energy and CO2 emissions analysis from Thailand’s long-term low carbon energy efficiency and renewable energy plan

Wongsapai, W Ritkrerkkrai, C Pongthanaisawan, J Sandu, S

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Publication Type:: Conference Proceeding
Citation:: Energy Systems Conference 2016: 21st Century Challenges, 2016, pp. ? - ? (11)
Issue Date:: 2016

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Field	Value	Language
dc.contributor.author	Wongsapai, W	en_US
dc.contributor.author	Ritkrerkkrai, C	en_US
dc.contributor.author	Pongthanaisawan, J	en_US
dc.contributor.author	Sandu, S	en_US
dc.date	2016-06-14	en_US
dc.date.issued	2016	en_US
dc.identifier.citation	Energy Systems Conference 2016: 21st Century Challenges, 2016, pp. ? - ? (11)	en_US
dc.identifier.uri	http://hdl.handle.net/10453/73685
dc.description.abstract	This paper builds the energy demand and supply model from the bottom-up LEAP software and focus on evaluating and providing insights to the long-term energy and greenhouse gas impact from the national energy efficiency plan and alternative energy plan focus from 2015 to 2036 under the 2010 base year. From the results, we found that the energy demand would increase from 84.77 Mtoe in 2015 to 172.29 Mtoe, or 103.24% in 2036, mainly from the energy efficiency plan by applying the three main programmes with full successive ratio. The co-benefit result from greenhouse gas emission mitigation would decrease from 503.34 MtCO2 in 2036,161 and 116 Mt-CO2 from energy efficiency and alternative energy development plan in 2036, respectively. We also found that this mitigation also impacts to the decrease of grid emission factor from 506 in the BAU to 339 and 140 kgCO2-eq per MWh due to the higher renewable energy sources and imported hydro energy. From the LEAP results, the energy oriented input-output model with flexible production functions have been analyzed for the GDP and sectoral output, employment and trade balance impact from those integrated plans. We found that compared with the BAU, the integrated energy plans will have marginally negative impact on employment from 0.5% fewer jobs but higher energy efficiency targets would improve the trade balance as all non-energy sectors increase their outputs for international markets and also less dependent on energy imports of the country. Policy recommendations to deploy both energy plans are also raised.	en_US
dc.relation.ispartof	Energy Systems Conference 2016: 21st Century Challenges	en_US
dc.title	Integrated top-down and bottom-up model for energy and CO2 emissions analysis from Thailand’s long-term low carbon energy efficiency and renewable energy plan	en_US
dc.type	Conference Proceeding
utslib.location.activity	QEII Centre, Westminster, London, UK	en_US
utslib.for	0914 Resources Engineering and Extractive Metallurgy	en_US
pubs.embargo.period	Not known	en_US
pubs.organisational-group	/University of Technology Sydney
pubs.organisational-group	/University of Technology Sydney/Faculty of Engineering and Information Technology
pubs.organisational-group	/University of Technology Sydney/Faculty of Engineering and Information Technology/School of Professional Practice and Leadership
utslib.copyright.status	open_access
pubs.consider-herdc	true	en_US
pubs.finish-date	2016-06-15	en_US
pubs.start-date	2016-06-14	en_US

Abstract:

This paper builds the energy demand and supply model from the bottom-up LEAP software and focus on evaluating and providing insights to the long-term energy and greenhouse gas impact from the national energy efficiency plan and alternative energy plan focus from 2015 to 2036 under the 2010 base year. From the results, we found that the energy demand would increase from 84.77 Mtoe in 2015 to 172.29 Mtoe, or 103.24% in 2036, mainly from the energy efficiency plan by applying the three main programmes with full successive ratio. The co-benefit result from greenhouse gas emission mitigation would decrease from 503.34 MtCO2 in 2036,161 and 116 Mt-CO2 from energy efficiency and alternative energy development plan in 2036, respectively. We also found that this mitigation also impacts to the decrease of grid emission factor from 506 in the BAU to 339 and 140 kgCO2-eq per MWh due to the higher renewable energy sources and imported hydro energy. From the LEAP results, the energy oriented input-output model with flexible production functions have been analyzed for the GDP and sectoral output, employment and trade balance impact from those integrated plans. We found that compared with the BAU, the integrated energy plans will have marginally negative impact on employment from 0.5% fewer jobs but higher energy efficiency targets would improve the trade balance as all non-energy sectors increase their outputs for international markets and also less dependent on energy imports of the country. Policy recommendations to deploy both energy plans are also raised.

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http://hdl.handle.net/10453/73685