Low carbon energy scenarios for sub-Saharan Africa: An input-output analysis on the effects of universal energy access and economic growth

Hamilton, TGA; Kelly, S

Low carbon energy scenarios for sub-Saharan Africa: An input-output analysis on the effects of universal energy access and economic growth

Hamilton, TGA Kelly, S

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Publication Type:: Journal Article
Citation:: Energy Policy, 2017, 105 pp. 303 - 319
Issue Date:: 2017-01-01

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Field	Value	Language
dc.contributor.author	Hamilton, TGA	en_US
dc.contributor.author	Kelly, S https://orcid.org/0000-0002-8454-6144	en_US
dc.date.issued	2017-01-01	en_US
dc.identifier.citation	Energy Policy, 2017, 105 pp. 303 - 319	en_US
dc.identifier.issn	0301-4215	en_US
dc.identifier.uri	http://hdl.handle.net/10453/90334
dc.description.abstract	© 2017 Elsevier Ltd Meeting Sub-Saharan African (SSA) human development goals will require economic development to be the priority over the coming decades, but economic development ‘at all cost’ may not be acceptable across these goals. This paper aims to explore five development scenarios for the five largest economies in SSA to understand the implications to CO2-equivalent emissions (CO2-e) and off-grid energy modernisation in 2030. Within this scope GDP growth; economic structure; availability of energy resources; international trade; and, the development of distributed generation for remote locations are considered. Regional CO2 emissions were studied using a Multi-Regional Input-Output Model for Africa. Under the scenarios analysed all five nations will be unable to reduce 2030 CO2-e emissions below 2012 levels, whilst simultaneously achieving forecast GDP growth and universal access to modernised energy services. 100% off-grid modernisation is estimated to require a three-fold increase in Primary Energy Supply and a 26% (1317 Mt) increase in 2030 CO2-e emissions. Total regional CO2-e emissions could be reduced from 45% to 35% by meeting a 50% renewable energy supply target by 2030. Climate Change policy would need to focus on multi-sector reform to reduce regional emissions as the agricultural sector is the largest emitter in Nigeria, Ethiopia and Kenya.	en_US
dc.relation.ispartof	Energy Policy	en_US
dc.relation.isbasedon	10.1016/j.enpol.2017.02.012	en_US
dc.subject.classification	Energy	en_US
dc.title	Low carbon energy scenarios for sub-Saharan Africa: An input-output analysis on the effects of universal energy access and economic growth	en_US
dc.type	Journal Article
utslib.citation.volume	105	en_US
utslib.for	0501 Ecological Applications	en_US
pubs.embargo.period	Not known	en_US
pubs.organisational-group	/University of Technology Sydney
pubs.organisational-group	/University of Technology Sydney/DVC (Research)
pubs.organisational-group	/University of Technology Sydney/DVC (Research)/Institute For Sustainable Futures
pubs.organisational-group	/University of Technology Sydney/Strength - ISF - Institute for Sustainable Futures
utslib.copyright.status	closed_access
pubs.publication-status	Published	en_US
pubs.volume	105	en_US

Abstract:

© 2017 Elsevier Ltd Meeting Sub-Saharan African (SSA) human development goals will require economic development to be the priority over the coming decades, but economic development ‘at all cost’ may not be acceptable across these goals. This paper aims to explore five development scenarios for the five largest economies in SSA to understand the implications to CO2-equivalent emissions (CO2-e) and off-grid energy modernisation in 2030. Within this scope GDP growth; economic structure; availability of energy resources; international trade; and, the development of distributed generation for remote locations are considered. Regional CO2 emissions were studied using a Multi-Regional Input-Output Model for Africa. Under the scenarios analysed all five nations will be unable to reduce 2030 CO2-e emissions below 2012 levels, whilst simultaneously achieving forecast GDP growth and universal access to modernised energy services. 100% off-grid modernisation is estimated to require a three-fold increase in Primary Energy Supply and a 26% (1317 Mt) increase in 2030 CO2-e emissions. Total regional CO2-e emissions could be reduced from 45% to 35% by meeting a 50% renewable energy supply target by 2030. Climate Change policy would need to focus on multi-sector reform to reduce regional emissions as the agricultural sector is the largest emitter in Nigeria, Ethiopia and Kenya.

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http://hdl.handle.net/10453/90334