Building a House Prices Forecasting Model in Hong Kong

Ge, J; Lam, K

Building a House Prices Forecasting Model in Hong Kong

Ge, J

Lam, K

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Publisher:: Australian Institute of Quantity Surveyors
Publication Type:: Journal Article
Citation:: The Australian Journal of Construction Economics and Building, 2002, 2 (2), pp. 57 - 70
Issue Date:: 2002-01

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Field	Value	Language
dc.contributor.author	Ge, J https://orcid.org/0000-0002-2252-7829	en_US
dc.contributor.author	Lam, K	en_US
dc.date.issued	2002-01	en_US
dc.identifier.citation	The Australian Journal of Construction Economics and Building, 2002, 2 (2), pp. 57 - 70	en_US
dc.identifier.issn	1445-2634	en_US
dc.identifier.uri	http://hdl.handle.net/10453/9834
dc.description.abstract	The purpose of building a house prices forecasting model is to estimate the impact of housing demand and housing supply in Hong Kong. The property market plays a very important role in the economy of Hong Kong. The real estate sector contributed approximately 10.2 per cent of GOP in 1996 (Hong Kong Government, 1998). More than 45 per cent of all bank loans, over HK$500 billion as at the end of 1997, were directly tied to properties (Hong Kong Government, 1998). Income from land auctions, rates and stamp duties accounted for approximately 24 per cent of total Government revenue in 1997/1998 (Chan, et al., 2001). Property and construction company stocks contributed 25 per cent to Hong Kong's stock market capitalization as well as to over 60 per cent of capital investment expenditures (Newell and Chau, 1996). Smooth changes in house prices thus help to maintain stable economic growth in Hong Kong. To achieve a stable house price level, housing supply must match the demand for houses. However, house prices have at ti mes been very volatile as a result of mismatched housing demand and supply in Hong Kong.	en_US
dc.publisher	Australian Institute of Quantity Surveyors	en_US
dc.relation.ispartof	The Australian Journal of Construction Economics and Building	en_US
dc.title	Building a House Prices Forecasting Model in Hong Kong	en_US
dc.type	Journal Article
utslib.citation.volume	2	en_US
utslib.for	1202 Building	en_US
utslib.for	0905 Civil Engineering	en_US
utslib.for	1402 Applied Economics	en_US
pubs.embargo.period	Not known	en_US
pubs.organisational-group	/University of Technology Sydney
pubs.organisational-group	/University of Technology Sydney/Faculty of Design, Architecture and Building
pubs.organisational-group	/University of Technology Sydney/Faculty of Design, Architecture and Building/School of Built Environment
utslib.copyright.status	open_access
pubs.consider-herdc	false	en_US
pubs.issue	2	en_US
pubs.volume	2	en_US

Abstract:

The purpose of building a house prices forecasting model is to estimate the impact of housing demand and housing supply in Hong Kong. The property market plays a very important role in the economy of Hong Kong. The real estate sector contributed approximately 10.2 per cent of GOP in 1996 (Hong Kong Government, 1998). More than 45 per cent of all bank loans, over HK$500 billion as at the end of 1997, were directly tied to properties (Hong Kong Government, 1998). Income from land auctions, rates and stamp duties accounted for approximately 24 per cent of total Government revenue in 1997/1998 (Chan, et al., 2001). Property and construction company stocks contributed 25 per cent to Hong Kong's stock market capitalization as well as to over 60 per cent of capital investment expenditures (Newell and Chau, 1996). Smooth changes in house prices thus help to maintain stable economic growth in Hong Kong. To achieve a stable house price level, housing supply must match the demand for houses. However, house prices have at ti mes been very volatile as a result of mismatched housing demand and supply in Hong Kong.

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http://hdl.handle.net/10453/9834